Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Springfield Predictions Part 2: Point Projections

It's never easy to simply just throw out expected point totals for players in any league. There are simply too many factors to consider. Injuries, trades, and line changes can cause serious changes in a player's output, but I'm going to make these predictions based on the line-ups I projected in the last post, and in anticipation of a healthy year from the opening day roster. Like I said, I'm no Falcons expert, so I'd appreciate any feedback from readers on these numbers, just for personal reference..

Rob Schremp: 68 GP 19-52-71
He's getting a serious upgrade in linemates with Brule and Corazzini, and should get about 5-10 games in the NHL year thanks to injuries.
Gilbert Brule: 64 GP 18-44-62
Brule is definitely going to get into some NHL games this year, especially in anticipation of yet another Moreau injury. But he should put up some great numbers alongside Schremp.
Carl Corazzini: 79 GP 32-37-69
He's going to get consistent top line minutes as a veteran, and will be counted upon all year long to provide the offense. He should establish career highs for points, as he's playing with perhaps the most talented pair of linemates he ever has.

J.F Jacques: 74 GP 17-29-46
Jacques has consistently been around a point-per-game clip in the AHL, but I'm anticipating a slow start off of his injury. He should finish the season strong playing some top line minutes, and with guys like Reddox and Lerg.
Liam Reddox: 80 GP 19-34-53
He may not score at the same clip as last year, but Reddox will put up some legit second-line numbers. He should also get some 1st line minutes as a center when Brule/Schremp get called up.
Bryan Lerg: 76 GP 16-22-38
Like most rookies, I'm anticipating Lerg will start slow, and probably spend some time on the bottom-6 lines. But this kid has serious offensive potential, and by the end of the year, he'll be making a case to remain in the top-6 for 08-09.

Vyacheslav Trukhno: 77 GP 18-34-52
Trukhno is going to get a lot of PP time, and will the first guy moved up in case of injury/call-up to the top-6. He put up 35 points last year in his pro debut, and was considered a disappointment. I'd say he bounces back this year after ending last season on a roll.
Ryan O'Marra: 69 GP 13-28-41
O'Marra is going to start the season on pace for around 35 points, but I think when and if he gets promoted to second line thanks to call-ups, he's going to put up some points playing with more offensively gifted players. I think this is the year he "gets it", and his predicted output here is straight out of the Kyle Brodziak school of player development. I'd love to see how he plays alongside Jacques and Reddox, if given the opportunity.
Colin McDonald: 64 GP 11-12-23
McDonald was the Falcons' utility man last year, playing all over the ice, often out of position. But I think his potential is limited, and he may spend some time in the ECHL if Spurgeon can rebound this year.

Stephane Goulet 61 GP 16-12-28
Goulet has always been hailed as a goalscorer, and should get some PP time when the roster is thinned later on in the season. I say he stays close to a 0.25-0.30 goal/game clip, however.
Tim Sestito 76 GP 4-11-15
Sestito will turn out another gritty year on the 4th line playing solid 2-way hockey. He should be babysitting the many guys bouncing around from the ECHL all year long.
Tyler Spurgeon 73 GP 18-21-39
I think after a slow start, Spurgeon will bounce back from the disaster that was last year and continue to put up points at a clip just above 0.5 points/game. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes that spot beside O'Marra by the end of the year.

Theo Peckham 66 GP 7-12-19
Peckham is certainly going to get some reps in the NHL this year, but regardless I don't see his offensive numbers jumping excessively. I think his defensive game should take some big strides, and the offense comes later one (a la Souray).
Josef Hrabal 74 GP 11-23-34
The 23-year old Hrabal is going to get some serious PP time, and should be relied upon as the primary offensive defenseman at ES. I think 34 points is a reasonable prediction for him, as it's a bit less than what Grebeshkov was getting at the same age with the Manchester Monarchs.

Taylor Chorney 78 GP 9-23-32
I think Chorney is quite comparable to Ottawa's Brian Lee, who put up 25 points in 55 games as an AHL rookie last year. I don't think Chorney will be handed the same kind of minutes and opportunities Lee will, but will still put up a respectable 32 points in his first pro year thanks to 2nd unit PP time.
Jeff Taylor 76 GP 3-9-12
He's going to get around what he's been averaging in his AHL career so far, and will largely be relied upon to provide a stable partner for Chorney to develop alongside. Essentially the AHL version of Steve Staios for Smid.

Bryan Young 76 GP 1-9-10
The only reason I'm predicting a slight increase in points is the fact that he'll be playing with smooth-skating Wild, who would boost any partner's point totals.
Cody Wild 78 GP 9-15-24
1st unit PP time, and his overall offensive game at ES should do wonders for him. He could probably put up numbers in the Chorney range, but I'm guessing Truit would be hesitant to give him such a long leash before developing a solid 2-way game.

42 comments:

Jonathan said...

Good stuff here. I've got a few personal quibbles, but that's it:

Bryan Lerg - Lerg's been a quality college scorer for a bunch of years, and like Lowetide I think he's probably a better offensive player than most people think. (i.e. 50-60 pts at the AHL level).

Ryan O'Marra - I hope you're right about him, but I picture O'Marra as being a little less capable of point production than that.

Tyler Spurgeon - IF Spurgeon's healthy, which is a big if, I think he easily surpasses 40 points.

Like I said though, that's a really good overview.

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