The Oilfield

Springfield Predictions Part 2: Point Projections

2008-08-27T18:51:00.004-06:00

It's never easy to simply just throw out expected point totals for players in any league. There are simply too many factors to consider. Injuries, trades, and line changes can cause serious changes in a player's output, but I'm going to make these predictions based on the line-ups I projected in the last post, and in anticipation of a healthy year from the opening day roster. Like I said, I'm no Falcons expert, so I'd appreciate any feedback from readers on these numbers, just for personal reference..

Rob Schremp: 68 GP 19-52-71
He's getting a serious upgrade in linemates with Brule and Corazzini, and should get about 5-10 games in the NHL year thanks to injuries.
Gilbert Brule: 64 GP 18-44-62
Brule is definitely going to get into some NHL games this year, especially in anticipation of yet another Moreau injury. But he should put up some great numbers alongside Schremp.
Carl Corazzini: 79 GP 32-37-69
He's going to get consistent top line minutes as a veteran, and will be counted upon all year long to provide the offense. He should establish career highs for points, as he's playing with perhaps the most talented pair of linemates he ever has.

J.F Jacques: 74 GP 17-29-46
Jacques has consistently been around a point-per-game clip in the AHL, but I'm anticipating a slow start off of his injury. He should finish the season strong playing some top line minutes, and with guys like Reddox and Lerg.
Liam Reddox: 80 GP 19-34-53
He may not score at the same clip as last year, but Reddox will put up some legit second-line numbers. He should also get some 1st line minutes as a center when Brule/Schremp get called up.
Bryan Lerg: 76 GP 16-22-38
Like most rookies, I'm anticipating Lerg will start slow, and probably spend some time on the bottom-6 lines. But this kid has serious offensive potential, and by the end of the year, he'll be making a case to remain in the top-6 for 08-09.

Vyacheslav Trukhno: 77 GP 18-34-52
Trukhno is going to get a lot of PP time, and will the first guy moved up in case of injury/call-up to the top-6. He put up 35 points last year in his pro debut, and was considered a disappointment. I'd say he bounces back this year after ending last season on a roll.
Ryan O'Marra: 69 GP 13-28-41
O'Marra is going to start the season on pace for around 35 points, but I think when and if he gets promoted to second line thanks to call-ups, he's going to put up some points playing with more offensively gifted players. I think this is the year he "gets it", and his predicted output here is straight out of the Kyle Brodziak school of player development. I'd love to see how he plays alongside Jacques and Reddox, if given the opportunity.
Colin McDonald: 64 GP 11-12-23
McDonald was the Falcons' utility man last year, playing all over the ice, often out of position. But I think his potential is limited, and he may spend some time in the ECHL if Spurgeon can rebound this year.

Stephane Goulet 61 GP 16-12-28
Goulet has always been hailed as a goalscorer, and should get some PP time when the roster is thinned later on in the season. I say he stays close to a 0.25-0.30 goal/game clip, however.
Tim Sestito 76 GP 4-11-15
Sestito will turn out another gritty year on the 4th line playing solid 2-way hockey. He should be babysitting the many guys bouncing around from the ECHL all year long.
Tyler Spurgeon 73 GP 18-21-39
I think after a slow start, Spurgeon will bounce back from the disaster that was last year and continue to put up points at a clip just above 0.5 points/game. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes that spot beside O'Marra by the end of the year.

Theo Peckham 66 GP 7-12-19
Peckham is certainly going to get some reps in the NHL this year, but regardless I don't see his offensive numbers jumping excessively. I think his defensive game should take some big strides, and the offense comes later one (a la Souray).
Josef Hrabal 74 GP 11-23-34
The 23-year old Hrabal is going to get some serious PP time, and should be relied upon as the primary offensive defenseman at ES. I think 34 points is a reasonable prediction for him, as it's a bit less than what Grebeshkov was getting at the same age with the Manchester Monarchs.

Taylor Chorney 78 GP 9-23-32
I think Chorney is quite comparable to Ottawa's Brian Lee, who put up 25 points in 55 games as an AHL rookie last year. I don't think Chorney will be handed the same kind of minutes and opportunities Lee will, but will still put up a respectable 32 points in his first pro year thanks to 2nd unit PP time.
Jeff Taylor 76 GP 3-9-12
He's going to get around what he's been averaging in his AHL career so far, and will largely be relied upon to provide a stable partner for Chorney to develop alongside. Essentially the AHL version of Steve Staios for Smid.

Bryan Young 76 GP 1-9-10
The only reason I'm predicting a slight increase in points is the fact that he'll be playing with smooth-skating Wild, who would boost any partner's point totals.
Cody Wild 78 GP 9-15-24
1st unit PP time, and his overall offensive game at ES should do wonders for him. He could probably put up numbers in the Chorney range, but I'm guessing Truit would be hesitant to give him such a long leash before developing a solid 2-way game.

Springfield Predictions Part 1: Lineups and Positions

2008-08-27T02:58:00.010-06:00

I didn't see much of the Springfield Falcons last season, so I'm not exactly an expert here. For that, you'd have to look to Lowetide and BryanBryOil on HF, who are familiar with the workings of the team. But I've done all I could to research how the team functioned last year, and what additions have been made heading into next year. Here are my projections for next season's Falcons:

Forwards
To be consistent with my past predictions, I'm choosing Ryan Potulny to make the Oilers lineup come opening night. So guys like Brule and Schremp are going to be staying down. There are a plethora of prospects listed as left-wingers, but I think we'll see many of them playing RW.

Line 1: Schremp Brule Corazzini
Corazzini has been an upper-tier player in the AHL for a while now, and adds a great scoring touch to complement Brule and Schremp's playmaking. He's basically a less-skilled version of Cogliano, and uses his speed to be effective. Until Lerg grasps the pro game, he'll probably be option #1 at RW.
Line 2: Jacques Reddox Lerg
I don't know how Jacques will do this season; regardless he's going to have to rehab his back and slowly work himself back into top-flight form. I think taking a regular shift with steady Reddox and the offensively gifted Lerg should be a great way for him to return to his old style of play.
Line 3: Trukhno O'Marra McDonald
Unlike most 3rd lines, this one is going to see limited ice time to start the season. O'Marra is going to have to play the 2-way role effectively, and should get a serious boost from having the creative Trukhno on his wing. Colin McDonald is the AHL version of Marty Reasoner, he plays everywhere without looking terrible. Hopefully he can fulfill his draft pedigree here playing with some legitimate prospects.
Line 4: Goulet Sestito Spurgeon
Stephane Goulet is ready to play consistently in the AHL. He's an offensive force in the ECHL, and should prosper under less intense minutes playing alongside the gritty Sestito. Tyler Spurgeon is coming off a disappointing, injured season, and is going to have to work his way up back to a second or third line spot.

This all has been Oiler signings. Other guys who could grab a spot include:
Toby Lafrance: Solid offensive player in the Q, could crack the bottom-6; simply too good for ECHL.
Luke Lynes: My wild-card pick. Former '06 4th round pick went unsigned by the Capitals and could grab a 4th-line spot if one of Spurgeon or Goulet disappoint.

Defense:
The Oilers are going to be gifted on defense this season, and it's scary to think that some of these guys are going to be sent down to Stockton in the ECHL. What is going to be felt is the loss of veterans like T.J Reynolds and T.J Kemp.

1st Pairing: Peckham Hrabal
Mathieu Roy is going to have to pass through waivers to play in the AHL this year, and he's probably going to get picked up too with his cheap contract. After a successful rookie campaign, Peckham is expected to have a huge sophomore year, and potentially get interest from the big club later on due to injuries. He should play a lot of big minutes. Josef Hrabal is going to get a long look at camp, as the guy has played a solid 2-way game in Russia for a while now, and is coming off a Grebeshkov-esque season in the RSL (KHL). He should get the nod over Chorney to be Peckham's linemate.
2nd Pairing: Taylor Chorney
The young Taylor Chorney is going to be given some top-4 responsibility to start his pro career, and I think he'll be fine. He should get a security blanket playing with veteran Jake Taylor, a newly signed defenseman from the Hartford Wolf Pack--thanks to BBO for this bit-- (Robby Bina, Chorney's linemate in college, signed with the Falcons in the off-season. He's expected to start the season down in the ECHL before potentially working his way up)
3rd Pairing: Young Wild
Bryan Young did make a lot of progress in the latter half of last season, but should find himself babysitting the young and raw Cody Wild, who's going to have to work his way up before getting some serious minutes.

Who else could get some consideration:
Sebastian Bisaillion looked like the next Bergeron early last year before suffering a horrific leg injury. I project him to start the year in the ECHL, but if he hasn't lost much of his game he's a lock for the top-4 next season.

Goaltenders
With no more Deslauriers, the Falcons are going to depend on a former 1st-round draft pick, and a kid fresh from the OHL

Starter: Devyn Dubnyk
After putting in the work in the ECHL and AHL the last couple of years, Devyn Dubnyk is finally getting his chance to start. He should get almost 60 starts this season, and this may be a key year in his development. If he can prove himself a legitimate AHL starter, he not only moves up on the Oilers' depth chart, but puts the Falcons in a great position in the AHL standings.
Backup: Bryan Pitton
After a stellar final season in the OHL, where he was literally the MVP of the Brampton Batallion in leading them to the playoffs, Pitton is ready to make the jump to pro. He's going to get at least 10-15 starts behind the young Dubnyk, and hopefully he turns out to be a solid future NHL goalie.

Powerplay (thanks BBO)
Jacques Brule Brule
Trukhno Wild

Schremp is a monster operating on the right side on the PP, where he sets up as QB, as wel as with his wicked one-timer. Trukhno gets BBO's vote of confidence to be a pointman on the PP, while Cody Wild should fulfill his offensive potential here by getting quality 1st-unit time. Schremp and Brule go without saying as the top two forwards on this unit, which will from having J.F Jacques wreaking havoc in front of the net.

Corazzini Goulet Lerg
Chorney Hrabal

Hrabal will use his pro experience to help Chorney manage this PP, which is filled with goal-scoring talent. Corazzini is the closest thing to a playmaker, and should be handling the puck a lot here. Goulet is going to be around the net using his 6'3 frame to open up space for himself, while Bryan Lerg plays a poor-man's Rob Schremp role on the right side, using his one-timer to create chances. I think the defense on this unit will handle the puck more than on the first unit.

Penalty Kill
Reddox-Lerg
Peckham-Young

Liam Reddox was the top defensive player for the Falcons last year, and should get time with speedy, defensively underrated Lerg, who was vital to the strong MSU PK last year. Peckham and Young are going to be relied upon to use their size, physicality, and strength on this unit.

O'Marra Spurgeon
Hrabal Chorney

Taylor Chorney is going to have to play some minutes on the PK, which he did a decent job of in college. Hrabal should be able to handle some SH-minutes, but with this unit the defenders are going to have to be quick on the dump-ins and rely on puck-possession to kill the clock. O'Marra will get a chance to prove himself an effective 2-way player playing alongside Spurgeon, an established defensive presence in past stints in the AHL.

PP Setup Possibilities

2008-08-27T00:07:00.004-06:00

With the changes over the last couple of years, the Oilers have transformed their powerplay from one traditionally in the middle-of-the-pack to a potentially top-5 man advantage in the league. Here are some PP possibilities for this upcoming season

First UnitThis is kind of like the "Umbrella" the Oilers set up in the 2006 playoffs, with Souray in Pronger's spot, Visnovsky in Spacek's, Penner in Smyth's, and Gagner in Samsonov's. I'm anticipating a plethora of point shots coming from this unit, and for that reason I think it's important to have a guy like Penner in front of the net to set screens and clean up rebounds. It's tough to choose between Horcoff and Gagner here, because Horcoff could work the boards so much better, but Gagner's simply got too much offensive instinct, and would work well with Hemmer down low, as well as with Visnovsky on the right side.
It's important that Visnovsky retains that right side point position. He'll be able to shoot and distribute from there. Souray can play the top of

I think this is the general consensus for the 1st unit, you'll occasionally see Horcoff in for Gagner to handle the tough puck work behind the net, and see Cole play Penner's spot to add more of a shooting touch to that near right side.

Second Unit

This is basically a poor-man's attempt at replicating the PP the Oilers had just before the Horcoff injury. Remember, this unit was starting to make some progress before the injury, so it shouldn't be too bad. Nilsson replaces Hemsky, Cole replaces Penner, and Grebeshkov replaces Pitkanen. Horcoff provides some puck-possession and play-making from the right boards, and Gilbert that point shot. Grebeshkov will be a middle-man, and should play "rover" a lot on this unit, sneaking down for tap-in's. Nilsson on the left side is something we haven't seen much of (he's usually on the right), but as a RW he should be fine playing a Hemsky-esque role from that side. It'd be interesting to see how he'd do with a cross-ice pass to either Cole or a crease-crashing Horcoff. Cole in the slot there is something the Hurricanes used, with a lot of passes coming to him from behind the net or the sideboards from Staal or Whitney. He could also play that Penner role in front as well, but I think he's more suited to the shooting from the slot.

Here's another possibility, which uses the 4-forward set up. Cole has a decent slapshot, and could be a one-timer option there on the point with Gilbert, or could move down a little for a set up from Nilsson. He's also good at playing that "middle-man" spot mentioned above, and can be relied upon to back-check if there's a turnover. Basically, he'd be playing a Stoll role. I think the main focus of this unit will be the cycling between Horcoff and Cogliano and the playmaking of Nilsson. It's just another option I'm throwing out for the second line. It kind of reminds me of the 2nd unit from last season, where there was no real presence in front of the net, just a lot of cycling and quick passes until a hole formed.

Money talks...and says Potulny is our man

2008-08-25T00:45:00.007-06:00

Imagine how happy former Oilers "capologist" Scott Howson would have been to be part of the organization today. In the Katzian era, he would have unlimited financial flexibility to put this team together. And judging him based on how he did in the 2005-2006 season, you gotta think he would have pulled some major moves.

Well the Oilers are once again healthy spenders this season, after spending to the cap in 2007-2008.

Let's look at the breakdown, all numbers being in CAP HIT (all this thanks to nhlnumbers.com):

FORWARDS: $26.478 M
The ones I'll list right now are the ones pretty much guaranteed to stay in the lineup all year long.

1st line (11.7 M):
Cole (4, UFA)
Hemsky (4.1)
Horcoff (3.6, 5.5 EXT)

2nd line (4.591 M):
Gagner (1.625)
Cogliano (1.133)
Nilsson (1.833)

3rd line (7.247 M):
Penner (4.25)
Brodziak (0.497, RFA)
Pisani (2.5)

4th line (3.525 M):
Moreau (2.0)
Pouliot (0.825)
Stortini (0.700)

DEFENSE: $21.236 M

1st pairing (9.6 M):
Visnovsky (5.6)
Gilbert (4.0)

2nd pairing (8.1 M):
Souray (5.4)
Staios (2.7)

3rd pairing (2.386 M):
Smid (0.886, RFA)
Grebeshkov (1.5, RFA)

Reserves (1.15 M):
Jason Strudwick (0.650, UFA)
Mathieu Roy (0.500, RFA)

GOALTENDING (5.417 M):

Garon (1.1, UFA)
Roloson (3.667, UFA)
Deslauriers (0.650)

So as of right now, the Oilers have a minimal cap commitment of $53.131 M, which is $3.569 less than the cap maximum for this year.

The Oilers are right around the middle of the pack in terms of spending on forwards, while they spend 5th most in the league on defensemen. For a team that gets a lotta flack for overspending on Roloson, the Oilers manage to be in the bottom-half of the league in terms of spending on goaltending.

All this seems to bode well in Lowe's mission to replicate the Wings. They too spend greatly on their defense and forwards, while really limiting how much they give their goaltender. If the Oilers can implement the same puck-possession game, they should be successful with their cap distribution being in this manner.

OUTLOOK
The aforementioned cap is for a roster including 12 forwards, 8 defensemen, and 3 goalies.

The Oilers are likely to waive Mathieu Roy early in the season, as riding with 8 defensemen when you have great prospects like Peckham, Chorney, and Hrabal in the wings is pointless. This knocks off 0.5M off the hit (now at $52.631 M), leaving them with $4.169M to spend. Another thing to consider is a 13th forward. The Oilers will have to be careful with who they choose, for the sake of conserving cap space.

Brule would have a cap hit of $1.247M
Schremp's hit would be $0.775M
Potulny's hit is $0.708M

By electing to go with one of Schremp or Potulny, the Oilers would save $0.5M over the course of the season, an amount that would come in handy around trade deadline day. It's yet another reason for Brule to at least start the season down in the AHL. Also interesting is Potulny's waiver eligibility. If the Oilers play Schremp with Brule in Springfield, and keep Potulny up with the big club, they can choose to waive Potulny if they feel one of Schremp or Brule is ready to step up, and thus they lose Potulny's cap hit if he gets picked up.

Another thing to consider is with Roy and Potulny's ages, they are still considered prospects. Both are on cheap contracts, and will likely go to teams seeking depth if they're waived.

So considering Roy is waived, and the Oilers ride with Potulny early in the season, we're looking at a cap hit of $53.411M to begin the year, leaving the Oilers with $3.289 in flexibility come deadline day.

Prospect Timelines: 2008-2009

2008-08-23T02:34:00.020-06:00

Jeff Petry is going to have play in at least one more classic MSU vs MU game before he gets to hit the NHL. I've prepared a top-20 list for the Oilers, much like Guy Flaming did a few days back. I'm also going to give a projected timeline for these guys, looking into the next 3-4 seasons and addressing how they would fit into the Oilers system over that time period. Remember, these are all pretty idealistic, as they are made assuming that the prospects will stick around and achieve their full potential.
eg) Chorney, Peckham, and Petry cannot all become top-4 defensemen with Visnovsky, Souray, and Gilbert all signed long-term.

1) Jeff Petry
That 2nd round pick in 2006 didn't turn out so bad afterall. After finishing his USHL career with a dominating performance, the 6'3 Petry picked up where he left off in the NCAA, standing out as a freshman in one of the toughest divisions in college hockey. He emerged as a 2-way dynamo for the Spartans, and was eventually picked to be on the Freshman All-Star team at the end of the year. He's easily the Oilers top defensive prospect, and should be a top-4 D-man in the mould of Braydon Cobourn, potentially even a top-2.
2008-2009: Will get #1 role with MSU, expected to dominate and finish as division All-Star
2009-2010: Becomes pro, starts year in AHL after impressive TC; #2 D-man after Chorney
2010-2011: #1 call-up option and potential bottom-6 player if Smid experiment ends, plays in AHL as top defenseman
2011-2012: Makes the team at age 24. Finishes year in top-4 with Gilbert-esque rookie year, ready to sign 2nd contract (Staios retirement opens up space for him to be top-4)

2) Riley Nash
The lanky, freckly Nash made his college debut with Cornell this past year. Within two games, he was promoted to the top line, and finished the season tied for the team lead in points in one of the most defensive divisions in hockey. He plays a great 2-way game, and should make the WJC tournament this year with Canada if he can keep up his impressive play. His potential is elite 3rd line center, with borderline 2nd line center offensive capabilities, similar to a Ryan Kesler/Travis Zajac. At 6'2, he's made for the job if he can put on the weight.
2008-2009: Dominates with Cornell, makes WJC team
2009-2010: Signs entry-level deal, sent to AHL, called up in case of bottom-6 center injury
2010-2011: Makes team out of TC, playing 4th line role, shows 3rd line potential later in season (especially if Brodziak dealt)
2011-2012: Established as 3rd line C

3) Rob Schremp
The saga continues with Rob Schremp, once the Oilers top offensive prospect, now struggling to make it into the NHL. Schremp had a great year with the Falcons, averaging almost a point/game. His offensive game is starting to show at the pro level, and his defensive play is improving. He's certainly got potential, but I'd say he's a late blooming version of Tim Connolly.
2008-2009: Schremp impresses at TC, yet can't find a spot on packed lineup. Is the #2 call-up option behind Brule, signs 1-year deal in off-season
2009-2010: Makes team out of TC on 4th line. In what may be his final year as an Oiler, he earns a new contract, unless the Oilers deal him due to depth issues (likely).
2010-2011: Plays on second line with Gagner/Nilsson (depending on if Brule pans out), or with Nash/Brodziak on 3rd line.
2011-2012: Established top-9 player in NHL

4) Theo Peckham
The big, bruising defender made great strides in his first pro season. At a raw 19, he was able to dominate physically and defensively, and played like a 22-year old Matt Greene did in his first pro year. Peckham has an unbelievable amount of potential, as he's also got a pretty nice set of wheels for a man his size, and a decent wrist shot. If he can get his offensive game together, Peckham could end up like Shea Weber. But a more realistic projection for now is a Kevin Bieksa in Vancouver.
2008-2009: Challenges for bottom-7 spot, ousted due to depth, first call-up option, 1st pairing defender with Falcons
2009-2010: Makes team as bottom-pairing D-man.
2010-2011: Usurps Staios as shut-down option, cracks top-4
2011-2012: Established top-4 physical defenseman in NHL

5) Jordan Eberle
The 2008 first-rounder tore up the WHL, scoring 42 goals to put him in the top-5 in league goal-scoring. He's got amazing scoring instincts, and scavenges around the net to finish a lot of plays. Eberle also possesses a strong wrist shot, solid play-making, and doesn't shy away from the physicality of big WHL defenders. Regardless, he's small, he's slow (for his size), and will need to work on bulking up and speed if he's going to pan out as a top-flight prospect. He's got Zach Parise-like potential if he does.
2008-2009: Rips up WHL
2009-2010: Signs entry-level deal, strongly challenges for a spot on opening day roster, #1 call-up all year long, especially if offensive player gets injured.
2010-2011: Makes the team a la Cogliano, gets legit chance with guys like Gagner and Nilsson.
2011-2012: Top-6 player, 20 goal scorer

6) Taylor Chorney
Although his last college year was disappointingly similar to his second, Chorney's development is not done yet. The mature blue-liner is ready to hit the pro ranks. He compensates for lack of size with great skating, intelligent decision-making, and smooth offensive abilities. He projects to potentially be a 2nd-pairing defenseman in the mould of Matt Niskanen
2008-2009: Makes top pairing in Springfield
2009-2010: 7th defenseman, gets some playing time in bottom 6 thanks to injury
2010-2011: Cracks team on bottom pairing, moves up to top-4
2011-2012: Hitting stride as 2-way defenseman on 2nd pairing

7) Jeff Deslauriers
Hardly a prospect anymore, Deslauriers is slated to make the big club this season. He hasn't played a single game in the NHL, and last year's AHL numbers may not look so good. But with a terrible defense in front of him, he was able to be the Falcons MVP, and showed his potential as a future NHL back-up. He's got size and some nice reflexes. He could eventually turn into a Mathieu Garon.
2008-2009: Back-up
2009-2010: Back-up
2010-2011: Solid back-up option
2010-2011: Shows starter potential

8) Ryan Potulny
Ryan Potulny followed up on an impressive NHL debut in 2006-2007 with a solid AHL campaign last season. He's no Schremp offensively, but his complete game and great shot make him an interesting prospect. I think he'll eventually make it as a bottom-6 player, but it won't be this year. I say he ends up like Glen Metropolit. A late bloomer that sticks in the bottom-6, but has the offensive skills to be a valuable asset at that position. If he can ever learn to play elite-level defense, you got a great 3rd line option.
2008-2009: Makes team as 13th forward, potential substitute for Stortini
2009-2010: 4th line player if he gets another contract
2010-2011: 4th line player
2011-2012: Defensive game begins to round out, becomes solid 2-way option in bottom-6 and potential 3rd liner.

9) Jean-Francois Jacques
Jacques continued his NHL cold streak, extending it to 53 games without a point. He had a terrible year, suffering a serious back injury in the AHL after putting up so-so numbers. He got another contract, because the team can't help but invest in a specimen like Jacques. He's got size, speed, and physicality, and has proven to be a great scorer in the minors. If he can ever get his shit together (as unlikely as it is), he could be a lethal power forward in the NHL, maxing out at a 2nd or 3rd line version of Erik Cole.
2008-2009: Looks good in TC, not enough for a spot, sent down.
2009-2010: Injury call-up, impresses enough to stick as 4th liner and Stortini substitute.
2010-2011: Manages to be a solid 4th liner all year long (if he gets a contract)
2011-2012: With Penner gone and Stortini's contract up, he has a legit chance to rise in the line up, even maxing out as a 2nd line option if his offense picks up.

10) Devyn Dubnyk
The tall, lanky goaltender put up average numbers in the AHL in his first full season there. With Deslauriers gone, he'll be expected to put up legit starter's numbers, and fulfill his 1st round draft pedigree. Dubnyk will have to use his size and rebound control to become an effective goaltender. I do believe he has starter's potential, and would compare him to Sean Burke or Mike Smith with his playing style.
2008-2009: Becomes outright starter in AHL, puts up solid numbers
2009-2010: Stands out as AHL all-star goalie, becomes Falcons MVP
2010-2011: Challenges Deslauriers in TC for back-up spot
2011-2012: Challenges for starter's position with Garon.

11) Josef Hrabal
Most people forgot the guy existed, but the 2003 draft pick signed an entry-level deal with the Oilers after a solid season in Russia, putting up Grebeshkov-esque numbers with Cherepovets. I'd say his potential is a slightly lesser version of Grebeshkov, and I really doubt he'll pan out (might just go to the KHL), but if he does:
2008-2009: Solid top-4 option in AHL
2009-2010: Challenges Chorney for 6-7 spot
2010-2011: If he re-signs, he'll be in the top-6
2011-2012: Established bottom-pairing defenseman a la Andrei Zyuzin

12) Alex Plante
Although he's got excellent draft pedigree, Plante's atrocious 2007-2008 season makes him a far-away prospect for now. Injuries in both prospect camp and mid-season in the WHL cost him his top-pairing role, and he ended the year with limited ice time in the Hitmen's playoff run. If he's going to bounce back, he's going to have to stay healthy, improve his speed, and get his overall development back on track. He's got Sheldon-Souray like potential, especially if he can get his shot in gear.
2008-2009: Strong bounce-back year with Hitmen
2009-2010: Signs entry-level deal, plays year with Falcons
2010-2011: Impresses at TC with 2-way ability, plays with Falcons
2011-2012: Cracks roster in bottom-6

13) Ryan O'Marra
The kid has fallen off the charts since an amazing 2007 WHC, where he looked like the next Rob Neidermeyer. O'Marra stopped talking, and started to play hockey towards the end of last season. He managed to stick with the Falcons for the final stretch, and looked impressive with his 2-way game. Regardless, he was only a bottom-6 player at that stage. He's got amazing face-off abilities and should get a real long look in a couple of years. Overall, I think his potential for now is a lesser version of Ryan Kesler, maybe even just a 4th line player. He's definitely going to be an NHL player, regardless of what role he plays.
2008-2009: Becomes top-6 player in AHL, challenges for top line
2009-2010: Competes with Nash in TC, becomes top-line forward with Falcons, call-up option
2010-2011: Cracks roster as 4th line center, moves up when injuries strike.
2011-2012: Centers Nash on third line.

14) Chris Vande Velde
It's hard to tell if Vande Velde's past season was more attributable to his linemates or his own development. This is why he's not ranked higher, for the offensive potential he showed with North Dakota would put him in the top-10 for sure. Playing with top prospect T.J Oshie and offensive dynamo Ryan Duncan doesn't hurt either, nor does having a top defenseman like Taylor Chorney to move the puck. But Vande Velde impressed at Oilers' prospect camp this past summer with his physical development and offensive capabilities. If he pans out, we could have a David Backes on our hands.
2008-2009: Plays top-line with UND, puts up numbers similar to last year
2009-2010: Plays senior year as 22-year old, improves offensive stats
2010-2011: Signs entry-level deal, plays AHL and finishes year in top-6.
2011-2012: Challenges Jacques (if he's still around) for the power forward spot with Penner's contract done.

15) Liam Reddox
After a quiet 2006-2007 campaign split between the ECHL and the AHL, Reddox exploded in 2007-2008 with a Brodziak-esque like year. He put up 44 points in a second-line role, showing a strong 2-way game that got him in an NHL game with the big club this season. If he can take it to another gear in terms of offensive productivity in the AHL, we might have another Kyle Brodziak on our hands, with the relentlessness of a Kris Draper.
2008-2009: Impresses at TC, buried by depth and plays 2nd line C in AHL
2009-2010: Makes it as 13th forward, sees some NHL action
2010-2011: Potential Pouliot/Brodziak replacement on 3rd/4th line.
2011-2012: Established bottom-6 player.

16) Cody Wild
Wild is a pure offensive defenseman who graduated to the AHL late last year after a succesful tenure with Providence. There, he learned somewhat when to jump into the play and when to take care of the zone, but still his poor decision-making and overall defensive game remains his only obstacle to pro success. He has great PP presence, and great skating, and would be an amazing offensive talent in the NHL. If he can ever round out his 2-way game, he could be a John-Michael Liles.
2008-2009: Solid top-6 player with Falcons, 2nd unit PP QB
2009-2010: Top-4 defenseman with Falcons, #1 PP option
2010-2011: 2-way game progresses to stage where he's top-pairing in AHL, #1 call-up
2011-2012: Essentially one-dimensional bottom-pairing defender in NHL, used primarily for PP and offensive capabilities.

17) Slava Trukhno
Coming in with high expectations after an explosive final year in the QMJHL, Trukhno struggled to find his offensive game most of last season with the Falcons. The last month, however, he really took off, scoring at a point/game clip. He has great offensive instincts, and does play on both ends of the ice unlike most Europeans. He's got potential to be somewhat of a Nilsson, but he'll have to find his game in the AHL before it happens.
2008-2009: Established 2nd liner with Falcons, pushes for 1st line
2009-2010: Impressive TC almost gets him a spot, #1 line with Falcons
2010-2011: Gets a shot with skilled players on 4th line with Oilers
2011-2012: Development earns some time on 2nd line, impresses with 2-way abilities; versatile player that can play all lines

18) Linus Omark
On the basis of skill and offensive instincts alone, Omark may be the Oilers top prospect. He was able to put up Fabian Brunnstrom-like numbers in the SEL, yet is a year younger than the much-hyped Stars prospect. The only limitation to Omark is his size. At 5'9, he needs to beef up if he's going to make it in the NHL. So far, he shows relentless work ethic and never backs down from physicality in Sweden. He's got great scoring touch and playmaking instincts. I think he's in the Sami Kapanen-mould in terms of overall NHL potential if his size doesn't become a factor.
2008-2009: Impresses in SEL, becomes top-line player with Lulea, gains weight
2009-2010: Signs 2-way deal with Oilers, makes statement with flashy offensive skill at TC, top line AHL player, call-up if top-6 player goes down
2009-2010: Cracks 3rd line, but offensive game has him eventually promoted to 2nd line.
2010-2011: 2nd line NHL player.

19) Johan Motin
A Peckham-like physical specimen at the age of 18, Motin exists so low on the list just because of the uncertainty of his future with the Oilers organization. He is the prototypical old-time shutdown defenseman. He makes the simple, safe play, uses his body a lot to separate his man from the puck, and never backs down from physical play. If he ever does make it to N. America, he may be a less explosive version of Vitaly Vishnevski, with a more effective overall defensive game.
2008-2009: Becomes top-4 defenseman in SEL
2009-2010: Top shut-down defenseman on SEL team
2010-2011: Shows NHL-ready game in SEL and international tournaments
2011-2012: Signs 2-way deal with Oilers, challenges over next couple years for bottom-6 spot.

20) Sebastian Bisaillion
After a ridiculous start to his 2008-2009 campaign, Bisaillion suffered a scary leg injury that pushed him out for the season. He was starting to look like a legitimate call-up option for that season, too. He has great offensive game for a bottom-pairing defenseman, and manages to hold his own in the defensive zone, using physicality and average decision-making. He's got the same kind of potential as a guy like Rory Fitzpatrick: decent 2-way ability but not quite NHL-calibre enough to be a legitimate starter. Reserve potential.
2008-2009: Remain top-6 with Falcons, pressure Roy for top-4 spot.
2009-2010: Become legit top-4 defenseman with Falcons and put up points.
2010-2011: Challenge for 7th spot, #1 call-up option for 7th spot
2011-2012: 6/7 defenseman in NHL.

Honorable Mentions:
Alexei Mikhnov: Top-15 in terms of actual skill and potential, but the likelihood of him staying in the KHL is too great to make him a legit top-20 prospect.

Stephane Goulet: After showing much goal-scoring prowess in junior, Goulet's game has failed to translate into AHL success, and is likely never going to make the NHL.

Colin MacDonald: After making excuses for his lack of scoring with Providence, the Oilers can no longer hide Macdonald's failure as a 2nd-round pick. He did put up points with the Falcons, but hasn't showed the kind of poise that would make him an NHLer.

Bryan Pitton: After a solid last year in the OHL, Pitton has a shot at becoming a back-up in the NHL. He's got quite a ways to go, though, as he's got to surpass Dubnyk on the depth chart before he becomes an option.

Milan Kytnar: He came with much mystery to the CHL last year, but failed to accomplish much offensively. Doesn't seem to have a 2-way game strong enough to become a legit bottom-6 presence in the NHL.

Robert Nilsson

2008-08-20T01:20:00.001-06:00

I've been sold on Robert Nilsson ever since he scored in his first ever game with the Oilers. There's no doubting his skill set, nor his ability to see the game like a top-flight forward, yet he finished below both Cogliano and Gagner in scoring last season. However, if you look a little closer, you get a better understanding of how effective the kid really is.

At the beginning of the season, Nilsson was able to win a top-6 spot on the team, playing RW beside Torres and Stoll. Now, knowing how last season went for those two former Oilers, it's not hard to guess how Nilsson's first month went. After five games he was sent down to Springfield, before being called up on November 2.

This time around, Nilsson felt the effects of the MacBlender. He struggled to find his way as he had stints on all 4 lines, and by his 15th game, had only put up 4 points.
Something clicked when Fernando Pisani came back. Nilsson's numbers took off from there, as he started to see time with Horcoff-Penner, and Cogliano-Brodziak. But when he was put on a line with Pisani and Gagner, Nilsson woke up. He went on his first points streak of the year, putting up 10 points in 10 games. He clicked with Cogliano and Gagner on the 2nd unit PP, and managed to have success alongside Pisani, somewhat of a legitimate shooter.

Nilsson put up 9 points over the next 23 games, as he found himself playing alongside Kyle Brodziak on the third line. Nilsson clearly needs skilled players to thrive, and without Horcoff or Gagner to play with, he struggled to put up numbers.

On January 18, as the Oilers were being spanked by the Carolina Hurricanes on a vital eastern road trip, MacTavish finally put Nilsson on a line with Sam Gagner and Andrew Cogliano. At this point, he had 23 points, Gagner had 15 points, and Cogliano had 18. From here, Nilsson only put up 18 more points over the next 33 games, but his presence alongside the two rookies helped those two really take off (Gagner would put up 39 points, and Cogliano 27 over the last 33 games)

Nilsson added an element to that line that went unnoticed. He was someone that gelled perfectly with both players. His quickness and passing helped Cogliano put up a slurry of goals, while he was the only guy on the team other than Hemsky who could think at the same level as Gagner, and the two were magical together in the offensive zone. His presence was what really pushed that "kid line" to the forefront, and although he didn't put up the same amount of points as the other two, it was clear to see that he was a key figure in almost every goal they scored.

Not only was Nilsson an effective offensive player, but his presence was felt defensively as well. At +8, he led the team in plus/minus, compared to +1 for Cogliano and a terrible -21 from Sam Gagner. I remember that one overtime game versus the Blues when Nilsson made a key sprawl across the neutral zone to block a breakaway pass, before helping to set up Cogliano and Gagner down low for what would be Cogliano's 3rd OT winner in a row. Nilsson got no press for the move, but it was integral for us winning the game. It exemplifies what he brings to the team. Whether it be points or steady defensive awareness, Nilsson was always contributing

Let's see how the Desjardins numbers worked out for Nilsson.

Robert Nilsson was even better than Ales Hemsky at even strength, putting up 2.37 ESP/60 in his first full NHL season. He played with a -0.01 QC and a -0.08 QT; this yielded a ΔQ of -0.07, a literal disadvantage compared to Hemsky's 0.00.
What also sticks out is how much of a playmaker Nilsson is. He had 1.84 ESA/60, which puts him 6th in the entire league, ahead of guys like Hemsky, Savard, and Datsyuk.

Now, Nilsson didn't get anywhere near the powerplay opportunities Gagner did, and spent the entire year on the second unit. So we won't know how good he could be until he gets to play with the likes of Penner, Hemsky, and Gagner on the top unit. Even then, I think it's safe to say with his skillset and hockey mind, he'd be putting up huge numbers.

For next season, I'd look to have Nilsson play hefty minutes at even strength. He only played around 11:07 at ES a game last year, and I think with his production, that needs to go up. Also, with such a high ESP/60, he should get some time with legitimate scorers (like Cole). He ought to be playing around 12:30-13:00 a night at ES, and 2:00 a night on the PP.
As a second-line player with his 2-way capabilities, playing 15 minutes a night isn't too much to ask out of Robert Nilsson, in my mind the unsung hero of the Oilers' late-season push.

Playing for the love of the game

2008-08-19T23:20:00.000-06:00

Stefan Legein's recent decision to retire from hockey at the age of 19 comes as a shocker to many fans of the game. How could someone so young, so talented, who had already committed so much to making a career out of hockey, suddenly decide to forgo a lifestyle that would have paid him millions?
It really puts things in perspective for the fans, who dream of living the lives these guys do. But when you lose your zeal to keep playing, what's the point?

The life of an NHL player is not as fantastic as it seems. The way the game is now, players must constantly remain in shape, and train hard even in the off-season. There are immense pressures from both those close to you as well as the fans to perform at a high level, and when one reaches the professional ranks, this pressure increases exponentially. Players spend essentially 8-10 months of the year with the team, travelling, practising, and undergoing the grueling physical tolls of an 82-game schedule. What they gain in finances and popularity comes at a cost of the stability and flexibility of family life.

Regardless of this, I'd say most NHLers absolutely love it. They're getting paid to play a game that they have loved since childhood. You see it in character guys like Ethan Moreau and Steve Staios, as well as kids like Sam Gagner and Ales Hemsky. The comradery, the fight, the drive to win, these things all push these guys to play the game hard and with a passion.

But Legein's decision reminds us that as players move further along in their careers, this "love for the game" can wane. You got to wonder how many current NHLers may be feeling the same way. They may be too young to have enough financial security with their current wages, yet too old to suddenly change career paths. Guys like Joni Pitkanen come to mind, someone with all the physical skills to excel in the game, but seems so lost and unmotivated to show up and give it his all.

I respect Legein for his decision, and I wish him well in whatever he does. At the young age of 19, he's got many years ahead of him to decide upon a career. I know fans in Columbus may be upset, and may see it as a wasted pick or a wasted resource investment, but you got to understand that the NHL life may not be as dreamy as it seems.

How good is Hemsky?

2008-08-19T00:30:00.007-06:00

The topic of Ales Hemsky's status amongst the top players in this league has been debated a lot this summer. Not only is he the Oilers best player, but he's someone you got to love for his great skill, fluidity, and zeal to go at it regardless of what is being thrown at him.

A lot of people think Hemsky has 100-point potential, and I don't disagree, but I don't think we should be thriving on something as subjective as potential when talking about an established 25-year old player like Hemsky.

Let's talk about how he did last season stacked up against some comparable players, as well as some of the superstars of this league.

It's pretty easy to look at the overall point totals and rank Hemsky with the Brieres and Frolovs of the league. But once you take into account games played, minutes played, quality of competition and teammates (QC and QT), and breakdown of minutes played, Hemsky emerges in a completely different light (all this thanks to Desjardins)

Even Strength
Hemsky played the entire season on the first line, but had to put up with an entire half-season alongside Marty Reasoner and an out-of-shape, inconsistent Dustin Penner. He was the only legit first-line player on the team when Horcoff was out, yet managed to put up some respectable numbers along the way.
QC: 0.08
QT: 0.08
ESP/60: 2.36

Let's look at some other guys in the league that Hemsky gets compared to:

Name	QC	QT	ΔQ	ESP/60
Ales Hemsky	0.08	0.08	0	2.36
Martin Havlat	0	0.25	0.25	2.61
Marc Savard	0.1	0.15	0.05	2.32
Patrick Kane	0.02	0.36	0.34	2.32
Ryan Getzlaf	-0.04	0.32	0.36	2.26
Eric Staal	0.07	0	-0.07	2.24
Mike Richards	0.05	0.11	0.06	2.21
Marion Gaborik	0.04	0.1	0.06	2.77
Daniel Sedin	-0.01	0.14	0.15	2.09
Rick Nash	0.08	0.06	-0.02	2.01
Alexander Frolov	-0.04	0.09	0.13	2.76

Anze Kopitar

0.02

-0.06

-0.08

1.86

The ΔQ is a denomination I kind of invented here to show the advantage/disadvantage gained by these players through the difference between their QC and QT. As you see, Hemsky not only does better than most of these players, but he does it without the significant advantage they have.
Let's compare Hemsky to some of the superstars of this league.

Name	QC	QT	ΔQ	ESP/60
Ales Hemsky	0.08	0.08	0	2.36
Sidney Crosby	0.03	0.22	0.19	3.38
Evgeni Malkin	0.05	0.2	0.15	3.20
Alexander Ovechkin	0.03	0.37	0.34	3.00
Vincent Lecavalier	0.13	0.02	-0.11	2.42
Joe Thornton	-0.04	0.4	0.36	2.84
Martin St. Louis	0.11	-0.05	-0.16	2.03
Jarome Iginla	0.04	0.03	0.34	2.85
Marian Hossa	0.04	0.15	0.11	2.07
Henrik Zetterberg	0.13	0.56	0.43	2.83
Pavel Datsyuk	0.09	0.49	0.40	2.76

Something we see here is that a lot of these players get a ridiculous advantage with the ΔQ thanks to playing with other legit first-line linemates and defenders. There's no way we can compare him to the elite-3 (Malkin, Crosby, Ovechkin), but it's interesting to see how his offensive production can be compared to the likes of Zetterberg, Iginla, Datsyuk, and Thornton, who all capitalize upon an enormous advantage via the ΔQ to put up higher ESP/60. Another thing to note is how Hemsky has managed to usurp the likes of Hossa and St. Louis in terms of overall offensive effeciency at ES.

I think Hemsky has hit a level that puts him above the perennial 70-80 point scorers of the league when it comes to ES production. He's not ready to ride with the home-run hitters atop the leader board, but he's definitely up there with the 90 point scorers like Iginla, Thornton, and Datsyuk when you consider the ΔQ.
I think the biggest problem is Hemsky doesn't get enough ES time, something that has happened each season since the lockout. The aforementioned players really eat up the big minutes at ES with their respective clubs, and I think it's something we really need to look into for Hemsky. It'll not only help to lower his QC (other teams' shutdown pairings need a break, too), but will give him more chances to translate his great ESP/60 into higher totals in the points column.

Power Play
Here we hit Hemsky's specialty. Hemsky was the lone bright spot on an otherwise atrocious Oilers PP last season. He suffered through the losses of Horcoff and Souray for extended amounts of time, but managed to turn it up in the 2nd half of the year. We're not going to get any QC/QT values here, but I think it's safe to say Hemsky didn't have any significant advantages over other guys in the league in terms of QC considering the sorry state of the Oilers PP last year.
Here again are the guys we called "comparables" to Hemsky.

Name	PPP/60
Ales Hemsky	5.93
Martin Havlat	2.25
Marc Savard	5.57
Patrick Kane	4.62
Ryan Getzlaf	5.83
Eric Staal	4.57
Mike Richards	4.46
Marion Gaborik	5.46
Daniel Sedin	4.87
Rick Nash	4.55
Alexander Frolov	3.33
Anze Kopitar	5.87

Hemsky easily wins out here, playing on a significantly lesser powerplay than these guys did.
Now, the superstars:

Name	PPP/60
Ales Hemsky	5.93
Sidney Crosby	5.02
Evgeni Malkin	5.13
Alexander Ovechkin	4.55
Vincent Lecavalier	4.51
Joe Thornton	4.13
Martin St. Louis	4.79
Jarome Iginla	5.37
Marian Hossa	3.98
Henrik Zetterberg	5.20
Pavel Datsyuk	5.74

Hemsky trounces all of these guys in terms of powerplay point production. In fact, after Kovalev, Forsberg, Lehtinen, and Morrison, he was the 5th most effective powerplay forward in the league (even more impressive is that he and Kovalev were the only 2 to play more than 70 games).
Hemsky adds substance to what would otherwise be a bottom-5 PP in the league. Last year, Kovalev had a great supporting cast with Markov, Plekanec, and Kostitsyn to play with. Hemsky didn't have anywhere near the kind of talent to play with, but still put up all-star calibre numbers.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Hemsky get double-shifted in some games on the PP next season in order to improve the overall output of both units.

Summary
It's not hard to tell that Hemsky is one of the most offensively-gifted players in the league. He has shown amazing output in terms of ESP/60 and PPP/60, making him at least a top-15 player in the league when it comes to production in these situations. The problem that I see is that MacTavish is running a tight ship right now, and is not willing to hand out minutes like other teams are to their superstars. Hemsky rarely gets more than 18-19 minutes a game (compared to 21+ for a lot of the others), but has managed to put up amazing numbers regardless.

I think if Hemsky is going to take that next step, he's going to have to get more minutes. He has never shown signs of exhaustion in the past, and I think it's time for Mac-T to disregard any potential defensive troubles that arise with Hemsky on the ice, and look at what the team gains offensively with his presence. He should even consider trying him on the PK just to see how it goes (hey, even Ryan Smyth learned to become an effective penalty killer)

Now, I don't know the validity of Desjardins, but I've seen many other bloggers put out some legitimate arguments using these numbers. Regardless, I think it's safe to say that in Hemsky, the Oilers have an elite-level player who is ready to break out given the opportunity to do so.

Why Colorado will be alright even without Sakic

2008-08-17T22:06:00.004-06:00

Joe Sakic looks pretty bewildered here after scoring his 600th career goal against the Calgary Flames. He scored 100 points in that 2006-2007 season, at the ripe old age of 37. He's one of the greatest offensive talents the game has ever seen, amassing six 100-point seasons over his career, and being one of the rare members of the 1000-assist club. At 39 years old, Burnaby Joe is now considering leaving the Avalanche for retirement, a move many have predicted would handicap the Avalanche heading into this season.

The loss of Sakic not only means that the Avs lose their captain, but they lose their top offensive weapon. But I think what a lot of us have forgotten is that the Avalanche are one hell of an offensive team, even without him and Brunette.

With Sakic gone, it is time for young Paul Stastny to assume the first-line center role. He will be accompanied by two 32-year olds, sniper Milan Hejduk and feisty Ryan Smyth. Both of them are capable of scoring 35+ goals given a legit set-up man. A healthy Smyth should do a lot for this top line, giving them someone to work the boards and the front of the net, and open up space for Stastny to operate and Hejduk to set up.

The second line is not so easy to predict. Youngsters Wojtek Wolski and Marek Svatos are coming off successful seasons, where both thrived alongside the brilliant Stastny. But with his promotion to the top line, who is there to fill the role?
T.J Hensick has been one of Colorado's top offensive prospects over the last couple of years, and finally broke in with the club for a few games last year, finishing the year in the playoffs with the club, putting up one point in 2 games. Many believe that the second-line spot is his for the taking.
If Hensick fails, Wolski will be shifted to the center position, a spot he's played before in junior. That 2nd line LW spot then goes to Darcy Tucker, a perennial 20-goal scorer that gives that line a gritty touch.
Either way, expect the offensive production on that line to be around 65 goals for next season, as Wolski's playmaking should do enough to make up for Stastny's absence.

The third line will be comprised of three gritty guys. Tyler Arnason is a capable 2-way player, and should excel in the bottom 6 alongside Ben Guite and character guy Ian Laperriere. They will get a lot of checking responsbility with the essential one-dimensional play (other than Stastny) of the top-6. Keep in mind if Hensick cracks the second line we'll see Tucker take Laperriere's spot here.

Rounding out the forwards are youngsters David Jones, who impressed late last year in the Avs' playoff push, and Cody McLeod, a kid who played steady in all 10 playoff games last year. T.J Hensick could be the center here if he doesn't crack the 2nd line. If he does, then expect to see Laperriere tutoring the kids on the line.

If you ask me, this offense will be in the top-3 in the division.

Now, I'll get to the goaltending last, but to make up for a potentially shoddy situation between the pipes, the Avs have assembled potentially the most defensively-sound blue line in the NHL (next to the Wings, of course).

Fresh off a brand new contract, John Michael Liles will be expected to carry the offensive load, and should get some big minutes playing alongside Adam Foote on the top line.

Although the loss of Kurt Sauer is a heavy one (in my opinion one of the most underrated defenders in the game), the Avs are going to have a sturdy replacement in proven veteran Ruslan Salei. He'll be paired alongside Brett Clark, who's 2-way game took huge strides last season. Together, they should be the second pairing, barring a Hannan/Leopold bounce back year, and should contribute a fair bit offensively while providing some solid shutdown potential.

The Avs are expecting huge bounce-back years from Scott Hannan and Jordan Leopold. Hannan, once considered a top-5 shutdown defenseman in the NHL, was atrocious last year, putting up a -4 plus/minus even after being relegated to second-pairing duty. Leopold has struggled to stay healthy since coming to Colorado, and regardless of putting up solid numbers when on the ice, needs to avoid injury if he's going to become a legit part of the team. If both can return to their true form, they should form a formidable, versatile pairing, and potentially challenge Liles and Foote for the most minutes on the team. The fate of these two players this year is a HUGE factor in determining just how good the Avs will be, they really need them to step it up.

I'd say the defense of the Avs is certainly top-2 in the division.

I know the goaltending sounds bad, especially the addition of Andrew Raycroft, but I think we're overreacting. Peter Budaj was being hailed as a legit starter by most Avs fans late in 2006-2007 when the team was making their late-season surge. He had a .905 SP on a formerly weak defensive team, and a 2.68 GAA. And this was including the early season struggles of the Avalanche. Last season, he was usurped by big-money Jose Theodore, but still managed to put up even better numbers as a back-up. I'd compare Colorado's situation right now in goal to the Oilers' at the beginning of the 2005-2006 season. You have a guy like Markannen in Budaj, who has proven over the years that he can be leaned upon when there's no one else, and someone like Conklin in Raycroft, where you don't know just what you're going to get with him. You never know what a fresh team might do for the kid, and if the Avs can grab a legit starter before the deadline while still contending for a spot, they're in prime position to make the playoffs or even win the division.

The goaltending is bottom-2 in the division as of now.

So there, even if the pundits are picking either the Oilers or Flames to win the division, I'd say we ought to keep our eyes peeled for the Colorado Avalanche, a team that regardless of potentially losing Sakic, may be a contender this season.

Head Office Shuffling: Why?

2008-07-31T23:29:00.008-06:00

"I plan to leave the management of the team and its public communications to the management."
-Darryl Katz, after finalizing his takeover of the Edmonton Oilers
"He wanted to allow us the management to strenghten our management group"
-Kevin Lowe

Heading into this off-season, new Oilers owner Darryl Katz seemed to project an "hands-off" mentality when addressing how he would be involved in the daily running of things as the Oilers GM. But this move has all the makings of a Katzian decision.

I think we were all under the impression that things were going to be the same regardless of the ownership change. Lowe would continue to be the GM, and be the big player in the head office in terms of dealing with other teams, agents, and the running of the team.

But I think Katz noticed that some things needed to change over his first month as GM. Lowe is one of the most brilliant hockey minds in the game, someone more than capable of running a team. But his passion for the well-being of this organization has caused some tumultuous situations, and he is disliked by many prominent members of the hockey community (Burke, Winters, Regier). On top of that, the image of Edmonton had taken a considerable toll under Lowe's tenure as GM. That's not necessarily Lowe's fault, but people around the league are quick to associate his face with the city's poor image. Losing out on both Hossa and Jagr must have been disheartening for Katz, who usually is able to do what he wants in the business world. The idea of bringing a fresh, positive face to the front office would help in his goal of essentially turning this franchise, this city, and its image around in the future.

He looked around the league, and saw what was bringing teams success. The Detroit Red Wings, the top franchise in the NHL for the past decade, have always been known for their strong scouting staff. But on top of that, they have an exceptional management group aiding GM Ken Holland with running the club (Jim Devallano, Scotty Bowman, Steve Yzerman, and Jim Nill). Katz has been used to having a management group coordinate his business affairs (including with the Rexall Group), and it was only natural for him to take to this idea of accumulating a group of experienced, reknowned hockey minds in order to strengthen the overall management of the team. Investing money in brining in quality talent at the highest levels of a team's operations seems like a sensible way of improving the on-ice product.

With all this on his mind, Katz approached Lowe about the possibility of shifting things around. He respects Lowe and what his knowledge brings to this organization, but he was simply not ideal to have around as the guy to handle the day-to-day business interactions and dealings with other GM's. It would be better to have someone more amiable handle these responsibilities. He offered him the President of Hockey Operations position, basically giving him control of the entire hockey aspect of the Oilers franchise. I know it sounds like a figurehead kind of role, but it still gave Lowe control of the team's future, one he would implement using a management group of his choosing.

That being said, Katz wanted someone who would think on the same level of Lowe, sharing his view for the direction of the team. I think this is where he backed off and asked Lowe who HE would consider for the spot. Naturally, Lowe chose Tambellini, a guy he's worked with in the past as part of the Hockey Canada management group, and someone who shared his view and idea of how to run a hockey team. You can see him saying the same things Lowe has been.

"this is going to be a puck-possession team"
"we're going to be quick, skilled, and play with an edge"

Tambellini brings a fresh face to represent the club in its daily running, someone to deal with the agents, the GM's, and the media that have caused Lowe to lose 70% of his once luscious hair. But he also carries much respect and reputation in the league, and is someone Katz can trust the same way he trusts Kevin Lowe.

Major Changes in Upper Management

2008-07-31T23:13:00.003-06:00

What a way to create a stir in one of the more boring weeks this off-season. The Edmonton Oilers today announced a trio of changes in the head office. Kevin Lowe, formerly the General Manager, is now President of Hockey Operations. Steve Tambellini, former assistant GM of the Vancouver Canucks, has been hired on by Lowe to be his successor (his first move as PoHO), while former Vice-President of Hockey Operations Kevin Prendergast has been shifted to the assistant GM spot alongside Rick Olczyk.

Surprise move, but if the Oilers were going to bring any outsider in for this spot, Tambellini was my first pick. He's worked with Lowe before on the 2002 and 2006 Olympic squads, and has plenty of experience with McTavish and other Oilers players when he was part of Hockey Canada's success at the World Hockey Championships from 2003-2004.

There's a lot to talk about this deal, including the motives, the new power breakdown, and what to expect looking forward. More to come on each of these topics in the days to follow.

How Howson Turned around a Trainwreck

2008-07-31T02:06:00.007-06:00

The Columbus Blue Jackets remain the only franchise in the NHL right now that hasn't had a post-season birth. But with a slew of off-season changes and upgrades, we've seen them become legitimate playoff contenders here in the West. Credit has to go to former Oilers assistant GM Scott Howson, who was able to transform himself from a capologist to a legitimate hockey mind during his tenure here.

Entering the 2007 off-season, Howson had a disaster on his hands. The Blue Jackets were not only basement-dwellers, they were stagnating as a team in terms of player development and overall outlook. Former GM Doug McLean had failed to fulfill any of the pre-expansion promise he had shown before the team had materialized, and after 7 years of failure, it was time for a change.

Although the Jackets didn't improve at all last year, Howson and Co. were able to make some changes that not only opened up tons of cap space for the team, but improved their outlook heading into this offseason. Here are a few of the moves:

2007-2008
1) Signed Jan Hejda to a 1-year deal, before extending him for 3 more
-Hejda is arguably one of the NHL's best defensive defenseman, and will be a rock for years to come on the CBJ blue-line
2) Signed Jiri Novotny to a 2-year deal, and Chimera to a 4-year extension
-Novotny emerged as a solid 4th-line player for the Jackets last season, and put up 22 pts. One of the league's most underrated 3rd liners, Chimera is a solid 2-way presence
3) Dealt both Adam Foote and Sergei Fedorov at the deadline for a 1st and 2nd pick, respectively
-Major salary unload, while opening up roster space for next year, and grabbing solid picks to build up the prospects.

With some key components re-signed, and plenty of cap room freed up, Howson made his moves in the 2008 offseason:

2008 offseason
4) Signed Mike Commodore to a 5-year contract
-Commodore struggled to find his niche with Philips and Volchenkov already occupying it with the Senators, but should be a dominant force along with Hejda over this contract term at shutting down the opposition
5) Signed Kristian Huselius to a 4-year contract
-This granted Rick Nash his set-up man, and really helps boost the lacklustre offensive attack the BJ's had.
6) Traded Nikolai Zherdev for Christian Backman and Fedor Tyutin
-With Huselius signed, Howson moved Zherdev for 2 above-average defenders. Backman will help boost the break-out, while Tyutin's solid 2-way play adds to the top-4 in Columbus. This more than makes up for the loss of Ron Hainsey, who signed an inflated contract with the Thrashers
7) Traded for the rights to R.J Umberger, and signed him to a 4-year contract.
-This move gives them depth down the middle, and Umberger, with his untapped offensive potential, should have legitimate chances to shine alongside Nash and/or Huselius
8) Signed Mike Peca and Mike York to cheap, cheap deals
-These two players, although their careers are taking dives, will provide great leadership, depth, and some solid bottom-6 play when the BJ's need it.
9) Traded Gilbert Brule to the Oilers for Raffi Torres.
-They got rid of essentially a dead-end prospect in Brule for a proven 20-goal scorer in Raffi Torres. Both of these guys needed a change of scenery. Torres will get plenty of chance to shine in the top-6, and should return to 20+ form.
10) Re-signed Pascal Leclaire to a 3-year contract
-The guy emerged as a legitimate starter with the BJ's last season. He's young, he's fresh, and Howson got the deal done before his value skyrocketed.

With these 10 moves, Howson has created a legit playoff team here. Not only are a lot of these guys underrated (Hejda for example), but they have great coach in Hitchcock to help them further improve.

Nash Umberger Huselius
Torres Malhotra Voracek
Chimera Peca Novotny
Brassard Murray Filatov
Svitov
York

Hejda Commodore
Klesla Tyutin
Backman Russell
Tollefsson

Leclaire
Norrena

How about that, that gives the Blue Jackets plenty of room to work with their young players, while they have solid guys like Huselius and Commodore around to lead them. This team is going to grow, and if not this year, will be serious contenders in the years to come with the prospects they're accumulating and with the great leadership of Scotty Howson.

How far can Brodziak go?

2008-07-31T01:30:00.006-06:00

Kyle Brodziak is one of the more interesting Oilers youngsters. The guy was drafted to be a 2-way presence and solid bottom-6 player, and after a few years of tumultuous development, we're seeing him blossom into a great NHL player. The knocks on him after being drafted were his speed and offensive skill, but he was able to overcome and both and make the NHL last season. It's hard to project just how far a kid like him can go.

Although it took Brodziak longer to become a player, he was able to grab the bull by the horns at age 23 and put up 80-14-17-31 playing on the 4th line all year.

Not only did he put up solid numbers in those limited minutes, we saw flashes of some of his undeveloped skills. Brodziak was a solid passer, solid shutdown presence on the PK and ES, a strong presence along the boards, and had a great shot. Remind you of anyone?

Shawn Horcoff broke into the league at age 23 and had 61-8-14-22 playing 4th line minutes with Laraque (Stortini) and Moreau (Glencross). Pro-rated to 80 games, he would have had slightly lower numbers than Brodziak in terms of points.

Brodziak's defensive game is even more advanced compared to Horcoff's at the same age, while Horcoff's speed back then was better than Brodziak's now. But with Brodziak working hard on his deficiencies, I really think he can eventually fulfill the same potential Horcoff did here.

Now, Horcoff was upgraded to that 2nd/3rd line role in his next full season, and put up a solid
78-12-21-33. This is essentially what Brodziak did last season, only he was younger and had less minutes.

If Brodziak can mirror or improve upon his stats from last year, while also maintaining the quality defensive play that he showed, he may be worth keeping for a very long time.

The Oilers PK, Part 2: Defensemen

2008-07-22T12:29:00.005-06:00

Many held their breaths when the Oilers came into the 07-08 campaign. Although they had struggled the year before, they had still managed to be among the top-5 PK teams in the league, thanks to the likes of Jason Smith and Jan Hejda. With only Staios and Greene left as defensive stalworths, the Oilers were left to fend on the PK with a bunch of offensive-minded defensemen. Once again, a few surprises when we look at the GA/60min:

Souray: 3.68 (3.77 mpg)
Pitkanen: 3.94 (1.93 mpg)
Staios: 4.15 (3.71 mpg)
Gilbert: 4.88 (2.40 mpg)
Smid: 6.03 (2.30 mpg)
Greene: 7.20 (2.54 mpg)
Grebeshkov: 8.96 (1.13 mpg)

Now, with all the injuries, even guys like Grebs were getting some minutes on the PK.

Anyone surprised with Souray? Who knew the guy we were labeling as a defensive failure is our best PK, playing the most minutes? His big body presence was a much-needed relief. He effectively cleared the front of the net, and was able to smartly move the puck out when there was too much pressure. Hopefully he stays healthy so that great play continues alongside Staios.

Pitkanen's defense also took a beating while he was here. But the guy could flat-out play. Although you wouldn't see him being physical, he was effective in another way. Teams couldn't dump-and-chase with him on the ice, cause he'd beat them to the puck and clear it out. He was also effective at burning SH time by skating the puck out or feeding it up to the forwards. It proves you don't have to be a Gator in order to have success on the PK.

Staios was clutch, and is going to be expected to carry the same load again this year. Gilbert's numbers were even better earlier on in the year, and faded near the end. He may see more minutes with Greene's departure, alongside either Smid or Visnovsky.

Smid and Greene received too much credit as a pairing last year. They played soft minutes, and were terrible on the PK. Who would have thought the "shutdown defenseman" Greene was going to be one of the worst defenders we had on the PK. Both these guys had questionable decision-making and positioning throughout the season. Good riddance with Greene and hopefully Laddy learns how to play.

Grebeshkov is the last guy you'd expect to play PK, and his numbers reflect it. He's not here to play those SH-minutes though, and we all know that. His role is strictly PP/ES.

Oh yeah, and here's why Visnovsky's shouldn't see PK time:

Visnovsky: 6.43 (1.37 mpg)

It's kind of cool how these numbers kind of match up with one of my predictions in an earlier post (I swear I never consulted them before this):
Oilers PK Minutes Predictions

If Souray doesn't stay healthy, the Oilers PK is going to be even worse than last year. Otherwise it could be slightly better then last year.

The Oilers PK, Part 1: Forwards

2008-07-22T11:56:00.006-06:00

Going over last year's stats regarding our PK, there are a few surprising stats that I found that would contradict a lot of what many Oiler fans have been discussing regarding the "defensive abilities" of our forwards:

Here top Oiler penalty killing forwards from last year, based on GA/60 min:

Reasoner: 4.49 (3.10 mpg)
Cogliano: 4.60 (0.80 mpg)
Brodziak: 4.82 (2.49 mpg)
Moreau: 5.17 (2.78 mpg)
Pisani: 5.24 (2.45 mpg)
Horcoff: 5.79 (2.54 mpg)
Stoll: 6.92 (2.67 mpg)

Keep in mind that after Horcoff got injured, Stoll and Pisani were our #1 PK unit, while Brodiak and Reasoner was the other. Moreau played a lot of 1st unit time when he was healthy alongside Horcoff

What surprises me is how much attention Jarret Stoll was getting as a defensive stalworth. He had easily the worst numbers on the team in terms of PK, and got some of the heaviest minutes; yet was the least effective. To the same effect, Reasoner was being vastly underrated for his PK presence. He was solid all year long. It's important to remember that both of these guys were both among the top minute-eating and faceoff-taking members of the team, and their departure means some others are going to step up.

Brodziak is going to be a major player on this year's PK, and I think it's imperative for him to learn to win faceoffs (he was 51.5% last season, not bad) if he's going to be relied upon during important times. He should be the 2nd option, after Horcoff, as a PK center.

If Moreau and Pisani don't stay healthy this year, we may be in the bottom-5 in penalty-killing, because I honestly don't think the kids are ready to take on that role this year.

Cogliano was a present surprise. Although he only played 0.80 mpg on the PK because of our depth, he not only had an impressive 4.60 GA/60min, he led the team on the PK with 3.68 GF/60 min as well. His speed made him such a threat that it not only deterred the other team's PP, it helped our PK create offense in the absence of the usual SH scorers like Moreau.

Can anyone say Marchant?

Here's another interesting thing:

Eric Cole: 5.40 (0.90 mpg)

Cole was getting some hype as a PK presence from posters on HF. With these numbers, I don't think we'll see him getting much chance to play the PK unless one of Moreau/Pisani go down.

Oilers sign Delauriers

2008-07-20T10:17:00.004-06:00

The Oilers made a risky, yet necessary, move today, signing 24-year old Jeff Delauriers to a 2-year, one-way deal.

As it breaks down, it'll be $550,000 the first year and $700,000 the second. That's not too bad for a potential back-up goaltender.

I know many will ask, "why the hell did Lowe give him a one-way deal?". It's not like Deslauriers was in any position to demand one, seeing as how he's yet to play in an NHL contest. But I think this is more strategy than anything else with Lowe. Let's look into Deslaurier's past why don't we?

Deslauriers was drafted in the 2nd round, 31st overall in the 2002 NHL draft, which is hella early for someone slated to develop into a backup. After suffering through a tumultuous 2002-2003 campaign with the Chicoutimi Sagueneens (.888 S%, 3.81 GAA), Deslauriers really stepped it up in 03-04, where he led the Sagueneens to a deep playoff run after posting a 0.916 S% on the season.

Deslauriers' first taste at the pro game came in the following season, where he played the lockout year with the Edmonton Roadrunners. He wasn't too bad for a rookie, posting a 0.888 S% and 2.96 GAA on a poor, poor team. From there started the tumultuous development period for the Oilers prospects, with the Oilers losing an AHL affiliate. Deslauriers was forced to play stints with teams like the Greenville Grrrowl, Hamilton Bulldogs, Wilkes-Barre Scranton Penguins, and last year, the Springfield Falcons.

Deslauriers suffered with the instability of the Oilers' minor league program, and his stats suffered badly until the 2007-08 campaign. By then, many were saying they'd be surprised if he even makes it as a back-up in the NHL. The guy the Oilers had been touting as a potential starter was clearly not showing it.

Things changed with the Oilers securing an affiliation with the Falcons, and with his spot in the lineup secured, Deslauriers led Springfield with his great goaltending, posting a 0.912 S% on what was one of the worst defenses in the league. He started to show signs of fulfilling the potential that got him drafted early in the 2nd round in 2002.

With that, the Oilers were faced with a dilemma. Deslauriers' contract had expired at the end of the 2007-2008 season, and was ready for an extension. However, as it was, they couldn't send him back down to the minors without having him pass through waivers. Given his recent performance, and the unpredictable nature of goaltender development, it was clear that one of the other 29 teams were going to pick him up as a backup.

Knowing this, Lowe signed Deslauriers to a one-way deal, to ward off teams that wanted to take a flyer on him, and send him down if it didn't pan out.

With Roloson wanting to start, and Garon clearly our starter, it appears that we're on the verge of a changing of the guard in the Oilers' crease. Deslauriers is going to be sticking around, and Roloson may be shipped out early in the season to a team that needs to hit the basement.

And Oiler fans, there's no need to worry. We've seen Deslauriers play at TC and in the pre-season, and he was easily able to hold his own. I've always been impressed with his play in the pre-season games, and I think he'll surprise a lot of his doubters this season.

Good signing by Lowe, assuring that there would be a "kid" movement at the goaltender front as well. This bodes well for Devyn Dubnyk, who is slated to be the starter now in Springfield. Jeff has earned it.

Reasoner signs with Atlanta

2008-07-17T14:13:00.003-06:00

The Thrashers have kick-started their rebuild by signing one of the classiest guys in the NHL. What a great guy to have around for the kids to look up to.

Marty Reasoner was an Oiler for a greater part of the last seven years. His invisibility made him a great 4th liner, and his versatility made him someone who could fill in at any role without making glaring mistakes.

He brought comedy to the locker room, with some epic interviews with the Edmonton media. He was one of the few guys who simply LOVED the city, loved the team, and wanted to be here. I remember his teary-eyed departure during the 05-06 deadline when we traded him for Samsonov. I knew he had to come back, and I'm glad he did.

Regardless of whatever frustrations we've had with McTavish and his love-in with Reasoner, misplaying him at times when we needed someone else there, we can't help but bid the guy farewell, and wish that he can rediscover the talent and succeed in Atlanta, hopefully fulfilling whatever potential made him the 15th overall pick in the 1996 draft.

BTW: Only 18 players in that draft have scored more NHL points than Marty. So it's not such a shabby pick after all.

Horcoff Signs 6-year, $33 Million Extension

2008-07-16T16:34:00.007-06:00

The Oilers re-signed their #1 center today, $5.5 million a year. Great move, in my opinion the best Lowe has made this off-season. Regardless of the money, he will always play a significant role on this team. With the current deal, he will be an Oiler until hes 37.

The great part is Horcoff is such a fitness freak that there is no doubt in my mind that he can be like Brind'amour, putting up high-quality points at an older age.

He's put the work in. Drafted late in the 1998 draft, he had to fight for every minute of icetime at the professional level. He moved from a 3rd line forward in Hamilton to budding young star in Edmonton to our 2-way #1 center.

I see this as a great move looking ahead. He will be our #1 center for the next couple of years, and even when Gagner is ready to take the role, Horcoff will be the minute-eating option on the second line. That's what you got to love with him. He will always contribute, regardless of what happens to his offensive game.

Ottawa media out of their minds

2008-07-16T10:10:00.002-06:00

Here's a link to the article by Ottawa Sun reporter Don Brennan:

http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Hockey/NHL/Ottawa/2008/07/16/6171651-sun.html

In it, he claims that the following trade is brewing between the Kings, Hawks, and Senators:

To LA:
Andrej Meszaros
Martin Gerber

To CHI:
Anze Kopitar

To OTT:
Nikolai Khabibulin
Brent Seabrook OR Cam Barker

Pause. What?

This is more than just Ottawa homer-ism, this is Los Angeles hater-ism. I don't care if he's not at the same level as Crosby/Malkin/Ovechkin, Kopitar is one of the premier young players in today's NHL, at the same level as guys like Staal, Toews and Kane. Los Angeles giving him up at the tender age of 20 is ridiculous, especially with the package this deal indicates is coming back. Gerber and Meszaros? C'mon. The Oilers would offer up Gilbert and Roloson, and even throw in a Cogliano if it means we'd get a sniff at Kopitar.

Ottawa gives up a shaky Gerber and a still unproven-Meszaros and gets former all-star Khabibulin and budding youngster Seabrook in return? A little bit unfair I'd say.

This deal looks amazing for the Blackhawks, who dump millions in salary room, free up roster positions, and get one of the best young centers in the game to add to their 2 superstars. This deal looks very realistic.

Here's my counter proposal:

To OTT:
Khabhibulin

To CHI:
Kopitar
Ottawa 2nd

To LA:
Gerber
Keith
Havlat

Ottawa gets the upgrade at goaltending they want, and keep Meszaros instead of losing him in an almost lateral deal.

Los Angeles gets a legit starter, a HUGE upgrade on defense, and a high-risk, high-reward player in Havlat who could easily replace whatever offensive output is lost by dealing Kopitar.

Chicago goes without being spoken for, adding to their young elite talent pool. Lucky bastards.

Who's Going to Be on the Powerplay?

2008-07-15T11:32:00.005-06:00

With so much injected offense, the Oilers suddenly have a plethora of options on the powerplay. Before we all start jumping to conclusions based on overall point outputs and flashiness, let's look at some stats. Here's the PP points/60 minutes breakdown for last season for some of the more prominent PP players:

ALES HEMSKY	5.93
DUSTIN PENNER	4.07
SHAWN HORCOFF	4.00
SAM GAGNER	3.88
TOM GILBERT	3.01
FERNANDO PISANI	2.94
ROBERT NILSSON	2.66
ANDREW COGLIANO	2.52
SHELDON SOURAY	1.72
DENISGREBESHKOV	1.26

LUBOMIR VISNOVSKY

2.77

ERIK COLE

3.13

Here are some things to consider:
-Gagner played the 2nd half with the top unit
-Visnovsky played all year at the LEFT point, he was at 7.0 p/60 the season before on the right
-Souray played more PP minutes than anyone when healthy, yet had the lowest output
-Cole was barely good enough to crack the 2nd unit with the Canes
-Grebeshkov played 2nd unit all year
-Gilbert played 1st unit in the 2nd half
-Pisani played 2nd unit since he came back, had the highest totals of any 2nd unit player

Considering all this, I propose these:

First Unit
Penner Gagner Hemsky
Souray Visnovsky

Second Unit
Pisani Horcoff Nilsson
Cole Gilbert

Whoever thought we'd run out of shutdown defensemen?

2008-07-14T03:56:00.005-06:00

Lowe and behold, the Oilers have suddenly become a potent puck-moving team. Apart from Staios and Souray, every other player is a solid skater and passer of the puck. I know Lowe's trying to follow the Detroit model of domination by puck possession, but it's not like they don't have a strong, physical defense to actually counter other teams when they do manage to launch an attack. With the departure over the years of guys like Smith, Hejda (shown left), and Greene, the team finds itself rich with puck-movers and lacking any shut-down defensemen.

Alright, that word gets thrown around too much...let's differentiate.
Puck-Moving Defenseman: Visnovsky is a prime example. These are guys that skate the ice well, see the ice well, and are always thinking of getting it up and starting the attack. They have excellent long passes, and are capable of using speed up the ice to effectively setup the breakout. Typical examples in the NHL include: Timonen, Zubov, Gonchar, Grebeshkov
Shut-Down Defenseman: Sometimes confused with "stay-at-home defenseman", shut-down defenseman are basically menaces on the defensive end. They don't necessarily have to be guys like Matt Greene (stay-at-home) who are effective in their own end but essentially pylons in the offensive zone. There are plenty of mobile shut-down defensemen in this league, and in the new NHL, it's their mobility that has granted them the ability to become great at what they do. Examples include: Philips, Weber, Volchenkov, Vishnevski, Hejda, Morris, Sauer, Clark, Hamhuis, and Kuba.

These are names much less prominent than the puck-movers, but these guys bring the same value to a team as the offensive guys do.

Here's other potential shut-down defenseman candidates still available either by UFA or trade. Keep in mind we only have about $3.7-3.8 million left in cap room if Delauriers comes up and Brule goes down:

Marek Malik - solid stay-at-homer, don't know if will be as mobile as we'd want him, but could come cheap with a lack of candidates. $2.9 million?

Filip Kuba - has 1 year left at $3 million, and is on a Tampa team lacking any signs of offensive defensemen apart from the now-obsolete Matt Carle. You think a Souray-for-Kuba deal is palpable? Or a package deal involving a forward and Grebeshkov?

Vitaly Vishnevski/Paul Martin - both guys are excellent 5-on-5 players and face the toughest competition on their teams. And New Jersey is desparate for an offensive presence on their blue-line. I'm sure they'd like an opportunity to nab a Grebeshkov or a Souray, and they'd be willing to give us one of Martin or Vishnevski back.

Derrick Morris - Former Flame has completely turned his career around since falling apart with the Avalanche. Although his offensiv game is nowhere where it used to be, he has since become a force on the blue-line for the Coyotes, playing some of their toughest minutes alongside Ballard last season. If he could be had by trade, he'd be a great pickup, even at a $4 million cap hit (it's only one season's worth, he knows his value has diminished, and he loves Alberta so he'll re-sign cheaper here; plus trading someone like Grebs/Staios for him would make it so that our cap only goes up $2.5 million, he is much more effective a defenseman then either of those 2)

It's a great time to be pursuing shut-down defensemen. Puck-movers are at an all time high in terms of value, and the Oilers are abundant with them. I don't think it'd be too dumb of us to try to nab a legit shut-down defenseman to play in our top-4, and to bring more of a physical presence to the blue-line.

Radulov back to Russia: Foreshadowing?

2008-07-11T12:35:00.006-06:00

For a while, the NHL fought long and hard with the Russian Super League to acquire and keep some of the game's highest talents.

Starting in the late 1980's we saw talents like Igor Larionov, Sergei Fedorov, and Pavel Bure all leave the RSL in order to make it big in the NHL. The Russians were upset, but they simply couldn't offer the same big-money contracts and lifestyles that these players found in North America.

The issue re-surfaced near the start of the lockout, when Russian hockey received a big boost in young talent with the likes of Kovalchuk, Ovechkin, and Malkin all being drafted by NHL franchises intent on dragging them away from the Russian clubs where they had developed into such stars. The Malkin "defection" case was one that received much media hype and coverage, and was one of the last of its kind I think we'll see in a while.

More recently, RSL clubs have been bought by billionaire owners focussed on turning them into strong, competitive teams with big-name players. We saw this early last year, when Alexei Cherepanov refused to come over to North America after being drafted, in order to stay with the Russians. With the new look came a new name for the RSL, now known as the KHL (Kontinental Hockey League), and now the aggressive owners are making expensive pitches to established NHL stars. We've seen the likes of Malkin and Jagr recieve big-money offers that exceed salaries allowed by the NHL cap.

The recent defection of guys like Jagr and Emery were reasonable, as both had their reasons. Jagr receieved an offer that paid him $5 million more than any NHL team was offering, for 3x the term. Emery simply could not find a team that wanted him, and signed on in Russia.

But with the recent departure of Alexander Radulov comes big worries for the rest of the league. Radulov, 22, is one of the new up and coming young stars of the league, and was due for a HUGE contract extension with the Predators after this upcoming season. Perhaps his signing with Ufa is foreshadowing a potential mass-defection of young talent from the NHL over the next few years? I've prepared a list of guys we might see leave for the KHL over the next few years:

Ilya Kovalchuk - Soon to be UFA who would recieve potentially the biggest salary in hockey history in the form of an offer form a KHL team
Denis Grebeshkov - Oilers D-man was already being contacted by KHL teams before signing a one-year extension with the club.
Nikolai Zherdev - Played in the RSL while having contract troubles with the Jackets early in the 06-07 campaign. Would easily bite on a big-money offer from Russia when his contract is up.

Thanks to the new NHL-KHL agreement, players can no longer leave a team they are under contract with to sign with a team in the other league. But any free agent can. I think we'll see more and more ridiculous offers from Russia, and even more and more defections.

Feaster: Pure Class

2008-07-11T11:22:00.006-06:00

Jay Feaster did not bicker, complain, or have a messy break-up with thte Lightning organization. Instead, he sat through a tumultuous 2-3 months of tradings, signings, and ultimate change of direction for the Tampa Bay franchise, aware that his role was diminishing and his time was coming to an end.

His departure from the team, and his respectful comments afterward are reflective of how much he still cares for the wellbeing of the organization and its members. It's rare that we see a GM look out for a team before he leaves it. Props to him. He was able to recognize when the team needed a new direction, and was man enough to admit he needed to quit.

Petry, Lerg and Chorney: Videos and Talent Assessment

2008-07-10T22:11:00.009-06:00

We've seen and heard a lot of about the likes of Petry, Lerg, and Chorney. But here are some videos for your viewing pleasure, just to get a real visual experience of just how good these kids are:
Jeff Petry
He scores the first goal in the clip, and plays a big role in setting up another at 3:08. Both are thanks to his speed up the ice. We get to see some of his PP poise at the 4:14 mark, as he sets up a beauty one-timer to Oilers signee Bryan Lerg.

Michigan State vs Michigan

Here's a clip of some of his physical game. He's a big body at 6'3, and has added 10 pounds to his draft-time 200 lb weight.

Big Hit

This is the only MSU highlight video on the internet. For all we know, Petry may be dominating like this game-in, game-out. Petry obviously has ridiculous speed for a guy his size, and being on a strong MSU team has allowed him to jump into the play many a time to create odd-man chances. We didn't get to see much of his shot in the clip, but the guy has a rocket from the point, topping out at 98 mph at the Spartan's skill competition. He's easily the Oilers #1 prospect, and an absolute gem for a 2nd round pick. I could see him leaving after his 2nd year, because he will be 21 (Chorney's age) by the end of it.
We've all heard tons about his physical skills, but boy this kid reminds me of Pitkanen the way he skates.

Bryan Lerg
Here he uses his speed to capitalize on 2 breakaways short-handed. Pretty nice move on the goalie both times

Breakaway goal 1
Breakaway goal 2
Highlight Video with Brother

It's great that he was getting a lot of SH time with the Spartans, it shows he can be relied on as a 2-way player in a bottom-6 role. But as you can see he's got some flash to his offensive game. It'll be interesting to see how much of it will translate into success at the professional level. He's a bit undersized at about 5'10, 180 lb. But if Cogliano can do it, so can he.

Perhaps the most exciting thing about this pickup is the fact that unlike other guys like VandeVelde who are playing with legitimate NHL blue-chippers like Oshie, Lerg has been playing with essential no-names. He has been able to be an offensive force at the collegiate level, and even if he doesn't crack the opening night roster, he's sure to be a first-line presence with the Falcons, and a top-5 choice for the call-up list to the big team.

Taylor Chorney
We get to see some of his powerplay game here in these clips...he eventually gets the goal at around the 44 second mark:
Powerplay Goal 1
Powerplay Goal 2
Crashing the Net

Although there's no clip of him really flying up the ice, we've seen him do it repeatedly with the US Jr Team. But we do get to see some of his lateral mobility along the blue-line on the PP, as well as his wicked slapshot. Chorney never has been known for his slapshot, but it sure does look lethal in the clips provided. He's honestly NHL top-4 ready in terms of his ability to make reads both offensively and defensively. If he can learn to adjust physically to the bigger players, he is a lock to be a top-pairing defenseman.

Oilers add some Toughness

2008-07-10T22:01:00.002-06:00

Zach Stortini may have just lost his job. The Oilers signed Jason Strudwick today to a 1-year contract. I think it's a great signing, he's a hometown boy who is more than capable of taking on the enforcer role on this team. Not only that, he is a guy capable of playing both a 4th line role, as well as a 7th D-man role. A great utility guy.

Although he looks like hes got a parachute on his back when he skates, Strudwick finished even last season on the Rangers, playing on the bottom pairing.

With Stortini asking for the moon on an extension, this was essentially a no-brainer. It's just an added bonus that Strudwick brings a veteran presence to the locker-room. He's a character guy capable of getting along with all the guys, regardless of age.

I could see him filling that 4th line LW spot on occasion if Stortini is let go of, as well as in filling in on D when there are injuries. McTavish is going to love him. He's an all-out solid player. He'll get the job done with the roles he'll be given. He'll make the easy, simple plays on defense, and do a good job of clearing the zone as a forward.

I think it was an important pickup for the Oilers. Stortini doesn't scare anybody, he just pisses them off. Strudwick is more likely to deter any rash attacks on the likes of Gagner and Nilsson than the combined trio of Stortini, Souray, and Moreau are. I think it's important to grab specific role players like him to play those few minutes a night rather than field a "generally physical" team.

Plante's Chance To Shine

2008-07-09T23:03:00.003-06:00

When the Oilers announced they had chosen Alex Plante 15th overall in the 2007 draft, my first thought was "Oh no...".

In my pre-draft rankings, I had forecasted Plante going mid-2nd round. I knew he was a solid, big-body presence on the Hitmen blueline who was supposed to be a future power play presence. He was being hailed as a potential shut-down defenseman, because of his impressive plus/minus (+18).

A lot of other draft predictors had him going anywhere between 25-40th overall, and I found that reasonable looking at HF's talent assessment:

"Moves the puck very well and has a rocket for a shot, a combination that allows him to be either the QB or the trigger on the power play.

Skates well but sideways mobility is an issue that smaller, shifty offensive opponents can take advantage of. "

But his defensive partner was the 5th overall draft pick, Karl Alzner of the Washington Capitals, one of the more solid 2-way prospects to come along in a while. I was leery of taking Plante's stats as indicative of his true potential, and I think last year went a long way in justifying my worries.

Plante DID have serious injury problems almost all year, but he did manage to play 38 games, and only put up 2 points, and a meagre +2 on an extremely strong Calgary team. Part of this is attributable to not getting to play with Alzner, and instead playing less prominent minutes. Although his play did pick up in the playoffs, Plante was still relegated to a bottom-pairing role with the Hitmen, his minutes being eaten up by guys like Paul Postma (Thrashers 7th round pick 2007) and Michael Stone (Flyers 3rd round pick 2008).

Guy Flaming (HockeyFutures) still sees a light at the end of the tunnel for Plante:

"Members of the Oilers organization, although clearly disappointed with the way things went for Plante this year, reminded HF that the player was seen as a project when he was drafted. In that sense, a one-year setback, although problematic, may not be something Plante cannot overcome with a great deal of offseason training. The Oilers expect Plante to greatly increase his leg strength, which will automatically help his skating, but will also improve his defensive play in the corners and in front of the net. The summer of 2008 may be pivotal for Plante’s future with the Oilers."

With Karl Alzner signing a contract with the Capitals, the Hitmen blueline now has a huge vacancy, one that is ready to be filled by a big-minute, 2-way defenseman. Plante has a legit chance of grabbing that spot. He's worked hard in the off-season recuperating from his leg injury and concussion, as well as training with weights to fill out his frame.

He has a great opportunity here to prove that the Oilers didn't make a mistake in drafting him. If he can show some advances in his footspeed and agility, he will be a lock for that top-pairing spot. He'll probably be paired up with Postma (a guy the Thrashers must be excited about), and get an opportunity to fine-tune his defensive game while also reviving his offensive game with the smooth-skating Postma.

After a tough season, Plante should get a nice bounce-back year here with the Hitmen. Coach Kelly Kisio, although frustrated with his injuries the year before, should give him all the opportunities in the world to get back up to the level of play that got him drafted in the first round.

How many will they score?

2008-07-09T01:42:00.009-06:00

This upcoming season's version of the Edmonton Oilers will feature even more offense than we saw last year. Gone are the likes of Torres, Stoll, Greene, and Pitkanen. We now have offensive production from guys like Visnovsky and Cole. The team is taking on a distinctly offensive flavor, and it wouldn't be unfair to make some predictions now of just how many they will score.

Here are my predictions, with the net change from last year's /82-game pace:

Forward	GP	G	A	P
Hemsky	80	23 (+1)	62	85
Horcoff	79	28 (-3)	45	71
Gagner	82	16 (+3)	46	62
Penner	82	26 (+3)	29	55
Cole	74	28	23	51
Nilsson	81	14 (+3)	36	50
Cogliano	76	17 (-)	32	49
Brodziak	82	13 (-1)	24	37
Pisani	77	16 (-1)	17	33
Pouliot	72	8 (+5)	17	25
Schremp	41	7 (-)	17	24
Moreau	64	9 (-4)	13	22
Reasoner	74	10 (-)	11	21
Brule	13	3	3	6
Potulny	5	0	2	2
Reddox	2	0 (-)	0	0
Total	984	219	377	597
Defense
Visnovsky	77	14	43	57
Souray	69	16 (+8)	32	48
Gilbert	79	13 (-)	29	42
Grebeshkov	81	7 (+4)	23	30
Smid	82	3 (+3)	16	19
Staios	79	4 (-3)	12	16
Peckham	8	0 (-)	2	2
Roy	9	0 (-)	0	0
Chorney	8	1 (-)	3	4
Total	492	58	160	218

NET TOTAL: 277 Goals

NOTE:
(-) indicates either no change, or player not commentable upon
Blank space indicates new player, would need analysis of role before making goal prediction.

The Big Risers
-Gagner and Nilsson are due for more goals coming there way, as both will see extended amount of time on the powerplay, as well as recieve the top-6 role all season long. Both should get 3 more.
-Penner is going to thrive on that 1st unit PP in front of the net, and I see him chipping in atleast 3 more.
-I think Pouliot is ready to break-out into a 3rd line role. That being said, 8 goals is a modest prediction for someone playing those vital minutes with not-so-shabby Moreau and Pisani.
-Schremp I may have been a bit generous with. But honestly, 7 goals in 41 games isn't TOO much for a so-called offensive wizard playing 4th line minutes alongside Brodziak (whom he has chemistry with), as well as recieving potential powerplay time.
-Souray is due to have a big season. He was hampered by injury for all of the first 8 games last season, and with a legit D-pairing partner on the PP, he ought to fill the net for 16 this season.
-Grebeshkov showed late last year signs that he could be a top-4 forward in the NHL. I basically took his goal-scoring pace over the last 35 games and extrapolated it to get that number
-Smid's big "0" was a big discrepancy, and I believe with elevated ice time and a more important role on the team, we'll see him develop an offensive side this season, as slight as it may be.

Droppers
-I'm anticipating Horcoff doesn't go on as much as a tear as he did last season, so a drop of 3 is expected
-I think past injuries are going to really show on Moreau this season. He won't be as fast, and his offensive game will be faltering
-Staios is also going to see himself with a diminished offensive role with the addition of Visnovsky and a healthy Souray.

The New Guys
-Erik Cole played last season on the 2nd line, with Rod Brind'amour (for a bit), Tuomo Ruutu (after Rod's injury), and Scott Walker. I think the opportunities he'll recieve on the 1st line here in Edmonton, as well as on the PP ought to raise his goal-scoring from last year's slight drop - 28
-Back to playing on the right side, I see Visnovsky benefitting from once again being comfortable in handling the puck, as well as recieving open shooting lanes with Souray as his partner on the PP - 14.

That being said, is 277 goals THAT unrealistic of a prediction?

Oilers re-sign Jacques and Pouliot

2008-07-08T13:32:00.001-06:00

Zach Parise is one of the NHL's top young guns. Within a couple of years of making it in New Jersey, he has become the Devils' #1 center, and is slowly and surely developing into a superstar.

But to Oiler fans, Parise will forever be the guy Lowe skipped on drafting with the 17th pick in the 2003 draft, instead trading for the #26 and #68 picks from New Jersey, and picking Marc-Antoine Pouliot and Jean-Francois Jacques.

The two Quebec boys have been under the microscope since being drafted, and yet showed much promise in both the CHL and the AHL. Fans began to think that the deal may have not been so bad afterall. However, neither are yet to secure full-time jobs in the NHL.

Marc Pouliot signed a 2-year, one-way extension at a $825,000 cap hit, turning down the 1-year qualifying offer the Oilers had made for him at $942,000 before July 1 (a 5% raise as required by the NHL). With this, the organization has instilled faith in Pouliot remaining with the big club over the next 2 seasons, be it in the press box or on the 4th line.
I've always liked Pouliot. When we drafted him, I thought we'd grabbed a gem from the QMJHL. He's a tall, smooth-skating center capable of making and receiving passes amongst the best of the NHL. He's a puck-possession type guy, and I think would be an instrumental player to keep if Lowe plans on emulating the Detroit style of hockey.
However, Pouliot hasn't exactly panned out for the Oilers. Originally drafted for his offensive flair, he has yet to show it in the NHL, scoring 19 points in 78 games over the past three seasons. Attempts to turn him into a 2-way 3rd liner have gone awry, and some deem him a "bust".
Pouliot is still more than capable of cracking a full-time spot with the Oilers. I see him becoming a late-bloomer, a great complementary player to legit NHL performers who is capable of playing the 2-way game. I see his career potential at being a Brendan Morrison

Mac-T seems to have retained a glimpse of hope in J.F Jacques, as the powerful winger signed a 2-year extension, the 1st year being 2-way, the 2nd 1-way. I guess the Oilers are keen on giving him one more year to pan out, and most likely would waive him if he doesn't.
I remember Jacques getting a lot of hype right after the lockout, some labelling him the "prototypical power forward for the new NHL". They had a point. He's big (6'4, 225), but skates faster than any other player his size. Apart from being a standout scorer in his first year in Hamilton (43 points in 65 games as a 20 year old), he was also a physical force, blistering the opposition with his body and even dropping the mitts to fight. As time went by, I couldn't wait to see the kid crack our roster.
But whatever dominance Jacques displayed in the minors has seemed to disappear when he was in the NHL. It seemed impossible for such a big-body presence to suddenly stop scoring. In 53 games with the Oilers, he has yet to score a point. Even more painful is the -17 plus/minus rating.
Unlike Pouliot, I really don't see much headed Jacques' way in terms of development. He's grown all that he can, and over the last couple of years his numbers have stagnated in the AHL. If he's going to crack it in the NHL, he's going to have to start getting lucky. He could be another Dustin Penner given the opportunity. But keep in mind, even Matt Greene managed to record a point in his first 50 games.

Springfield Roster Predictions

2008-07-08T10:12:00.007-06:00

There'll be a lot of changes seen on the Oilers' 4th line and defensive depth coming into this next season. With the departures of Sanderson, Glencross, and potentially Reasoner and Stortini, spots open up for a lot of the top players on last year's Falcons team to grab a spot with the Oilers:

Rob Schremp - I believe this is the year we see him crack the lineup, taking the RW spot
Marc-Antoine Pouliot - If Reasoner isn't re-signed, he could permanently take that center position on the 4th line
Liam Reddox - Graduate of the Marty Reasoner school of how to be invisible yet stick in the NHL. 13th forward. Even if Reasoner gets signed.
Theo Peckham - Number one option if someone goes down on the blue-line, could potentially knock Smid out of the starting 6.
Jeff Delauriers - 3rd Goalie, pretty soon going to be the #2 option if Roloson gets traded.

Here are some of the incoming players for Springfield:
Bryan Lerg - Standout in his senior year at Michigan State, he may start slow, but will be amongst the offensive leaders in Springfield.
Taylor Chorney - Blue line blue-chipper just signed from North Dakota, should see some big minutes on the top pairing.
Ryan Potulny - Chorney trade, should be a top-liner.
Cody Wild - offensive gem of a blue-liner. Should provide some puck-moving poise and power-play presence
Josef Hrabel - Czech defenseman with tons of RSL experience, great offensive instincts
Bryan Pitton - had amazing year in Brampton, should get backup role behind Dubnyk.
Gilbert Brule - Torres trade, need of major confidence boost

Brule Potulny Trukhno
Jacques Lerg McDonald
Spurgeon O'Marra Goulet
- Simon Werner

Chorney Hrabel
Bisaillion Wild
Sestito Young

Dubnyk
Pitton

Breaking Down Ice Times on the Blue Line

2008-07-07T13:02:00.007-06:00

With the new changes to the blue-line, it'll be interesting to see how the minutes will be distributed, and what pairings will be used in what situations. I think Mac-T is going to try to designate individual players' ice times based on situation rather than try to set up pairings. That being said, here are my predictions, with each player's average times in those situations from last season in brackets:

In terms of PP time:
1) Visnovsky (4:35)
2) Souray (4:15)
3) Gilbert (2:15)
4) Grebeshkov (2:05)
5) Smid (0:18)
6) Staios (0:10)

In terms of the PK:
1) Staios (3:58)
2) Souray (3:59)
3) Gilbert (2:31)
4) Smid (2:24)
5) Visnovsky (1:24)
6) Grebeshkov (1:09)

In terms of ES:
1) Gilbert (17:24)
2) Staios (17:52)
3) Visnovsky (16:59)
4) Grebeshkov (13:37)
5) Smid (15:08)
6) Souray (16:04)

Minimizing Souray's 5-on-5 time will be key to eliminating whatever liabilities he creates in the defensive zone. He's always been a strong PP/PK presence.
Visnovsky is going to have to play the main PP minutes, and will be relied upon for big minutes on ES. I think it's best to limit his PK-time, both to help preserve his minutes, but because he is a smaller, less defensive-minded player at that.
Gilbert is an amazing 5-on-5 player, and along with Grebeshkov should eat up a lot of the ES minutes. It's going to be a big step for Grebeshkov to take on 2-3 more ES minutes a night, but I think he showed us late in the season that he was ready. Those 2 will also make up our 2nd unit PP, and get a lot of time there as well.
Staios is going to have to eat a lot of 5-on-5 time, as well as the brunt of the PK time, as he is essentially our only defensive defenseman. With a rise in his minutes comes a general rise in Smid's.

Overall, I see the minutes breaking down like this:
Visnovsky: 24
Gilbert: 23
Souray: 18
Grebeshkov: 19
Staios: 20
Smid: 16

(No one get on my back for that not adding up to 120)

Problems in Cowtown

2008-07-07T11:28:00.005-06:00

I’d be shedding tears too if I were a Flames fan. Calgary signed Todd Bertuzzi today to a 1 year, $1.95 million contract, a move I feel was made out of, well…desperation. What has happened to the perennial playoff favorites? The Flames have made it impossible for themselves to have a team with any solid depth whatsoever. How did this happen?

The Flames, unlike other teams, have designated a “franchise player” at EVERY position. They have Iginla, Phaneuf, and Kipprusoff each eating tons of cap room. That's nearly $21 million right there, gone.

Also, just when a new streamlined, faster NHL game was introduced, the Flames revert to the kind of style that was winning championships in years past. They have slow, big bodied forwards and defenders, incapable of competing with the new speedy game.

Sutter is an old-timer, no doubt it, but he’s got to wake up and realize that it’s a new generation of hockey.

As it stands:

Camalleri Langkow Iginla
Glencross Lombardi Bertuzzi
Bourque Conroy Boyd
Moss Primeau Nilson

Phaneuf Regehr
Aucoin Sarich
Vandermeer Warrener

The defense is solid, but lacking any serious puck-moving presence. And that group of forwards is a joke. I don't even see how that first line is going to do, there's no real playmaker gone with Camalleri in and Huselius out. The Flames are going to miss Huselius a lot this year. Anytime Curtis Glencross is on your 2^nd line, it’s a testament to your lack of depth.

The Battle of Alberta, in my estimation, is going to be a joke this year.

A case for Martin Havlat

2008-07-06T23:36:00.002-06:00

Martin Havlat is one of the NHL's premier players...when healthy. He has consistently produced at a point-per-game clip, even with the poor, poor linemates he's been forced to play with in the past.

I think he's the ideal option for the Oilers to pick up, either now or later on in the season. At a $6 million hit, he does create potential cap problems, and I'd say he's one of the top-3 oft-injured players in the league (along with Moreau and Coliacovo). But with only one year left on his contract, and the high-talent play that he brings, I think the reward outweighs the risk when it comes to Havlat.

He's a smooth-skating puck wizard who can score 40 goals in an 82-game season. One of the biggest reasons the Oilers should grab him is because he's a LW, and a prime choice to take that 1st line spot beside Horcoff and Hemsky. He would bring a serious shooting threat to the powerplay, and help spread around the depth on the other lines.

I know his bones seem to be made of eggshells, but whether Lowe wants to risk it now, or wishes to use him to stock up for the playoffs, Havlat is an ideal fit for the Oilers. And I'm sure the Hawks are dying to get rid of him. Hell, I'd say he could be had for a 3rd/4th round pick. I just hope we grab him before he becomes too hot for the Hawks to let go of.

Havlat Horcoff Hemsky
Penner Gagner Cole
Nilsson Cogliano Pisani
Moreau Brodziak Pouliot

Greatest 20 minutes of hockey I've seen in my life

2008-07-06T23:02:00.006-06:00

Found this on YouTube, and couldn't help but share it:

I've never seen such passion and excitement from both the players and fans of this city.

Over the hill and falling fast

2008-07-06T21:17:00.013-06:00

That's Owen Nolan in his old San Jose days. Up until 2002, he was one of the NHL's most feared power forwards. Not only was he a consistent 25-30 goal scorer, he was a hard-hitting, big-body presence that wore out every defender he played against.

Nolan just signed a 2-year deal in Minnesota worth $2.75 million a year. Don't let the numbers fool you, that's just how much you have to pay for a borderline 2nd line player in today's NHL.

Nolan is part of the "Old Guard" of the NHL. These are players who up until the lockout were considered high-profile stars, but for some reason, either due to age or rule changes, have seen much-diminished roles in today's game. Here are a few others:

Michael Peca
Markus Naslund
Derian Hatcher
Jeremy Roenick
Rob Blake
Mike Modano
Mark Parrish
Todd Bertuzzi
Mike York
Bill Guerin
Glenn Murray
Doug Weight
Alexei Zhitnik
Alexei Zhamnov
Nikolai Khabibhulin
Sergei Fedorov
Adrian Aucoin

Guys that are gone:
Jeff O'Neill
Eric Daze
Ziggy Palffy
Tony Amonte

Take a moment to remember the days when these guys ruled the NHL. You gotta wonder why these guys weren't able to continue their dominance the ways guys like Sakic, Lidstrom, Rafalski, and Sundin have.

There's a common trend here. Gone are the big, slow defenseman who relied on obstruction and holding to dominate (Aucoin, Hatcher). No more will you see small, slow guys who are wizards with the puck dominate offensively anymore (Weight, York, Parrish).

However, some of the game's stars that should thrive with the new rules have struggled as well. The likes of Modano and Naslund should have been free to skate and shoot, while guys like Guerin and Murray wouldn't have had to put up with all the obstruction in front of the net. Zhitnik and Fedorov, both great European skaters, have seen great declines in their game (I guess Fedorov's is explainable by his age).

Some of these guys are going to be driven into retirement, kind of like Amonte and Daze. Others like Modano and Fedorov have done an excellent job of adapting to their diminished 2nd/3rd line roles.

Kudos to Nolan for showing although he doesn't have the speed to dominate in today's game, he's still got the physical presence and powerplay-ability to get a respectable 2nd/3rd-line job in today's NHL. It's no wonder these guys are staying. With the ways salary has been rising, some of these guys are getting paid the same amounts now as they would have got for their superstar talent before the lockout!

Evolution of the Oilers Powerplay

2008-07-06T20:49:00.005-06:00

That's Craig Simpson, former "PP coach" of the Oilers from before the lockout up until the last season. He made some questionable decisions when it came to organizing an effective man-advantage, and is now a broadcaster with CBC.

Since the end of the lockout, the Oilers have found themselves amongst the league leaders in terms of amount of changes on their PP. Here's a short history of the team's PP lineups since the lockout:

2005-2006
Hemsky Dvorak Smyth
Pronger Bergeron (Stoll on 5-on-3's)

Torres Horcoff Pisani
Staios Stoll

We saw a lot of shifting in the year as the PP was at best mediocore all season long. But towards the end, thanks to trades, it had improved to:

Hemsky Samsonov Smyth
Pronger Spacek

Torres Horcoff Pisani (or Peca)
Bergeron Stoll (or Tarnstrom)

We saw the likes of Pisani and Torres thrive in their 2nd unit role, as well as have Stoll put up 31 points in a career year points-wise for him. The key to the team's success late in the season and in the playoffs was the ability for the second-unit to perform at an optimal level.

2006-2007
With the departure of Tarnstrom, Samsonov, Pronger, and Spacek, and the arrival of Lupul and Sykora, the Oilers saw tremendous changes to their PP, mostly negative ones at that.

Lupul Smyth Hemsky
Sykora Stoll

Torres Stoll Horcoff
Bergeron Tjarnqvist

With no Pronger to help out on the point, the Oilers PP suffered horribly. the infamous 5-forward unit was dismantled within a month, and the 2nd unit struggled to put up anything. Stoll once again put up respectable numbers, as well as Hemsky and Sykora, but the PP was a major weakness all season long.

2007-2008
Lowe re-tooled the Oilers in the off-season, bringing big-time offensive defensemen Sheldon Souray and Joni Pitkanen, as well as re-acquiring Dick Tarnstrom. Heading into the season, the powerplay looked like this:

Hemsky Horcoff Penner
Souray Stoll

Cogliano Gagner Torres
Pitkanen Tarnstrom

With an early injury to Souray, the PP was the league's worst for almost half a season. However with injuries came the emergence of the "kids", and the Oilers PP took off in the second half, looking something like this:

Hemsky Gagner Penner
Gilbert Pitkanen

Nilsson Cogliano Pisani
Grebeshkov Staios

Gilbert and Grebeshkov really stepped it up late in the season as viable powerplay options on the back-end, and the kids were able to prove themselves efficient given time on with the man-advantage. The most amazing part of this late-season surge was the fact that traditional power play performers like Horcoff and Souray were injured.

2008-2009?
With the departure of Pitkanen, Stoll, and Torres came injection of new blood with Visnovsky and Cole. Both proven PP-performers, one can't help but be optimistic heading into the upcoming season. Here are my predictions:

Hemsky Gagner Penner
Visnovsky Souray

Cole Horcoff Nilsson (Cogliano can be inserted for Horcoff in some cases)
Grebeshkov Gilbert

Why do I feel these lineups will work?

The first forward unit proved itself late last season to be a lethal combination, with Hemsky and Gagner working magic with the puck, while Penner proving to be an immovable force near the crease. With the addition of PP wizards Visnovsky and Souray, we should see a serious upgrade in PP-output from the first unit.

With the addition of Cole, the Oilers are given a real goal-scoring option and crease presence with Cole. Nilsson adds a play-making option to the unit, operating on the right side. Horcoff will thrive in a 2ndary scoring role, especially because Nilsson's setup on the right side will give him many a chance to let out quick one-timers from the slot. Grebeshkov takes on a Visnovsky-esque role on the backend, doing a lot of puck-handling, while Gilbert will be expected to use his point shot as often as possible. The only potential problem I see here is Gilbert and Grebs both being RH defensemen, and it'll be interesting to see how Grebs would operate from the left side.

With a scary 1st unit in place, the addition of a solid 2nd unit will do wonders for the Oilers PP numbers this coming season. And in the new NHL, there's no doubting that a top-10 powerplay is a major factor into making the playoffs.

Where does Lowe go from here?

2008-07-06T20:12:00.008-06:00

With all the major free agents signed, the focus this off-season now shifts to trading. Teams have added major parts to their lineups, but are yet to fill out. As it stands, the Oilers look somewhat like this:

Forwards

Penner Horcoff Hemsky
Cole Gagner Nilsson
Cogliano Brodziak Pisani
Moreau Schremp Pouliot
Brule/Stortini

As I see it, Penner and Cole are interchangeable.

Lowe created quite a problem with the acquisition of another top-6 forward, cause in essence I thought that the top-6 had been set with Cogliano on the left wing.

Brodziak, IMO is ready to fill in that big-minute role on the shutdown line. His defensive game is up there with Stoll's, and I think he's ready for the position.

Cogliano, a guy I think is the most likely youngster to get traded in the next few years, is going to have to be relegated to a 3rd line role with Brodziak and Pisani. It's going to be a tough adjustment with him playing with lesser-skilled players, but if he's going to become a reliable 2-way player, he's going to have to learn to play with guys like these. And don't underestimate the goal-scoring ability of Brodziak and Pisani, they're not poor offensive players either. Both are capable of peaking at 20 goals this coming season.

What, if anything, do I think the Oilers need to address?
-Get a solid 2-way 3rd liner who has proven to be capable of handling those minutes Brodziak would otherwise have to handle, while being able to work with Cogliano offensively. It would be great to have a goal-scoring 3rd line.

Defense

Visnovsky Gilbert
Staios Souray
Grebeshkov Smid
Peckham/Roy

I think it's important to have two mobile, puck-handling defenseman on the top pairing. Visnovsky and Gilbert have both proven to be solid 2-way defensemen in the past, and it's only natural to have them handle the tough match-ups, seeing as how we really don't have a "shut-down pairing".

Staios brings some stability to the tumultuous defensive play of Souray, who I feel is a liability at even strength. This would be our primary penalty-killing pairing, using their big bodies and physical style to wear out the opposition.

Grebeshkov would be interesting paired with Smid, seeing as how Smid has been relegated to a sort of physical, shut-down role by Mac-T. Perhaps playing with the smooth-skating Russian will help Smid develop a similar offensive game, and hopefully he can fulfill the offensive potential he was hailed as having in his draft year.

What does this D-corps need?
Shut-down defensemen.

Goalies
Garon
Roloson
Delauriers

We wouldn't have such a big problem on our hands if we could simply just send Deslauriers to the minors till we find a suitor for Roloson. However, he would have to pass waivers, and the Oilers have invested too much time and resources into developing the kid to let him go.

I guess the team's going to be forced to carry 3 goalies, and that might be a problem seeing as how we have a 23-man limit on the roster.

Lowe fires back at Burke.

2008-07-06T04:00:00.004-06:00

For those of you that missed it. You can catch Lowe's interview with Bob Stauffer of The Team 1260 at:

Just A Game

WOW. After an entire year of silence and dismissals of any hatred, Lowe unleashed on Brian Burke.

Just days ago, Burke once again opened his big mouth. Asked about his recent re-signing of Corey Perry to a hefty, $5.6 million/year contract, Burke immediately took shots at Lowe. He blamed Lowe for the recent inflation in salaries for RFA's, citing last summer's offer sheets to Thomas Vanek and Dustin Penner as responsible for players like Perry, Getzlaf, and Malkin receiving expensive contracts.

Lowe defends himself in the broadcast, arguing that paying for what a young player is GOING to bring is better than paying a 30-year old veteran for what he has BROUGHT. This is a very important point, and I think a major reason why one should side Lowe on this issue.

Also in the interview (I don't want to spoil it):
-Blames Burke for the downfall of the Canucks since the lock-out, saying he left it in shambles
-Mocks Burke's cockiness, arguing the cup-winning team was built upon kids drafted by Bryan Murray, and the Pronger trade being abnormal under the circumstances.
-Says the Pitkanen trade was always in the plan, and that an offer was never on the table.

Overall, I like Lowe finally standing up for himself. Honestly, I hate to say it again, but I think the arrival of Katz has done tons for this organization's confidence. The Oilers are now a big-money, aggressive, in-your-face team, and the league's starting to take notice.

The Hossa/Jagr Ordeal.

2008-07-06T03:49:00.005-06:00

I guess Katz gave Lowe the thumbs-up to throw his money around. We saw the Marian Hossa sweepstakes go down to the last minute, when the superstar winger chose a shot at the Stanley Cup with the Wings at a price of $7.2 million for one season over a supposed 8-9 year, $80 million deal being offered by the Oilers.

If that was the case, I am glad as HELL to see Hossa with another team. I'm sure Lowe isn't stupid. A cap hit of $8-9 million for that term for someone like Hossa would have crippled this team for sure. He's a sure-fire talent, but he's been nothing but a complementary player to many of the game's established stars. From Alfredsson to Kovalchuk to Crosby, he's always been given an opportunity to play with a superior star. Who knows how he would have done with the Oilers?
I'm sure Lowe was in the running, but his offer was in the same range as the Wings' offer. Hossa turned it down for a stint at the cup, but hopefully he reconsiders next season when Lowe surely makes a similar offer for his services.

As for Jagr, I was really hoping to land him on a one-year deal. He's smart for choosing the ridiculous offer from Omsk, but a one-year contract would have been excellent for the Oilers. It would have JUST fit under the cap, and given us a real chance to contend this season. Better yet, we would be free of his contract at the end of the season, in prime position to take a shot at Hossa.

Katz's first 48 hours have been tumultuous, and hopefully the strides he aimed to make do come true over the coming months and years. As for throwing ridiculous amounts of money at high-profile players, I just hope Lowe approaches this realistically, and takes into account he's got young stars in the making that are going to need to be paid in the next few years.

New Owner. New Attitude.

2008-07-06T03:43:00.002-06:00

On July 2nd, the Oilers unveiled their new owner. Darry Katz, Gagner-esque mullet and all, finally showed his face to the public, and with it came much hope for the future.

I know there are some that question the wisdom of having another single owner, however the enthusiasm and promise we see in Katz is nothing like Pocklington.

There's too much to like with the new owner. He's promised to lay down $100 million on a new arena. He's promised to spend to the cap. He respects and commends the EIG, regardless of the saga they put him through with their troubles. Don't forget that he showed confidence in the ability of Lowe and Mac-T to get the job done here with the Oilers. His slogan, "Let's have some fun", is a refresher from the "Let's make some money" attitude of the EIG.

I think the addition of Katz is going to give the team a real swagger. He brings the big bucks, and the will to interact with and improve Edmonton's image and economy.

All I got to say is let's see what happens under Katz's ownership. At least that EIG-saga is over, and his hands-off approach may give Lowe some more freedom to do what he thinks will make the team better.

Off-Season Update

2008-07-06T03:15:00.002-06:00

Alright, I've been really sporadic with my posts, and I pledge to be more regular from now on.

Wow, what an off-season? I knew Lowe would make changes, but not so many!!

Re-signings
Gilbert's signing was a shocker for me. He was the Oilers' most steady defenseman last season, but I never anticipated making him a franchise defenseman. 6 years, 24.6 million is a hefty, hefty amount to pay, but if Gilbert can continue to develop and dominate with his 2-way game, this contract is going to turn out to be a bargain in the near future. ESPECIALLY with the way contracts have been dealt out with ridiculous amounts of money this off-season (Jeff Finger, what the hell?)

Grebeshkov's re-signing was smart. Keep it short and simple. This team has an influx of puck-moving defenseman, and the last thing Mac-T needs is not enough physical, shutdown defenseman. Consider this an audition for Grebeshkov. If he continues to show he can be a solid offensive defenseman, it makes him prime trade bait heading into next season. Hell, if he's good enough, maybe we'll re-sign him.

I was shocked at the amount Nilsson took to stay. I guess he really loves the city, and wants to stay. I thought he'd be looking at Torres-like salary, but the 3-year deal seems like a sure-fire bargain. Nilsson is essentially Hemsky-lite, and it'll be interesting to see how he further develops over the contract. Hopefully he emerges as a 2nd-line version of Hemsky. His shifty play and brilliant passes really powered the "Kid Line" this past season.

Trades
Syvret for Potulny was a great move by Lowe. He got rid of an obsolete player in Syvret for a Pouliot-like kid in Potulny. It'll be interesting to see Potulny fight for a spot come training camp.

Lowe shocked me when on June 29 he dealt for....another puck-moving defenseman. Stoll's future was never in doubt for me, there was no reason to keep him when he was struggling so much, especially with Brodziak ready to make the jump to 3rd-line center. It's sad to see Greene go, but Lowe essentially had to choose between him and Smid, and it was a no-brainer to keep the former 22-year old Czech 10th overall pick, purely for his potential.

But wow, Visnovsky! This guy has been on my top-5 list for offensive defenseman since the lockout. On a terrible, terrible team in Los Angeles, he was able to be a plus player for 2 seasons, befor shifting to the right side to play with Rob Blake. Blake really pulled down Visnovsky's output this past season, and he ended up a minus player, with a respectable 41 points.

A great pick-up by Lowe, Visnovsky is 3rd in total points among NHL defenseman since the lockout. His presence will be felt on the powerplay, where he will share QB duties with Hemsky. He has a ripper of a slapshot (looks like Lidstrom's), and makes quick smart passes down low to open up space for the forwards to set up. He really adds some stability to the backside, especially with the tumultuous Souray manning the back. It's going to be fun to watch him dictate our break-out next season. Visnovsky is a great talent, and kudos goes to Lowe for managing to grab him when his value was lowest.

With the trading of Stoll, it didn't take a genious to tell that Torres was next up. He simply didn't have a role to play on the team with his heavy $2 million salary and a 4th-line LW spot open with the departure of Glencross.

Gilbert Brule, a former 6th-overall pick in the Crosby draft, has seriously disappointed since entering the NHL as an 18-year old. It's true that the Jackets rushed him in, but his numbers since have been very poor, especially with the opportunities he has recieved to play with the likes of Nash and Zherdev.

Regardless, the scouts obviously saw something when they hailed him as a sure-fire top-10 pick. He is small, quick as hell, and possesses the skills and shot to be a star in the league. With the right amount of cultivation in the AHL and by the NHL coaching staff, it's not impossible to make him undergo a Nilsson-like transormation.

Both Torres and Brule needed a change of scenery, and this trade provides a chance for both to fulfill their potentials with new teams. Not to mention, Lowe managed to open up cap space for a certain other "venture".

Now, with the arrival of Visnovsky, the writing was on the wall for Joni Pitkanen. He was our other minute-eating offensive defenseman, the only one without a contract, and rumors had it he was asking for money in the $5 million range. With Visnovsky's $5.6 million and Souray's $5.4 million cap hits already emptying Lowe's wallets, it was a no-brainer that he was looking to trade Pitkanen.

With the departure of Torres earlier that day (July 1), the Oilers were left with a hole at the LW position. Instead of simply filling it with a 4th-line winger to replace Glencross, Lowe went for a bigger fish.

Erik Cole brings another much-needed power presence to the Oilers forward. Like Penner, he's a swift big man capable of putting up 30 goals in the NHL. Unlike Penner, this guy isn't afraid to hit. He is well known for getting his nose dirty when the time calls for it, however this style of play has given him much injury troubles in the past.

Giving up on a talent like Pitkanen really pains me, especially when it's for an impending UFA like Cole, who's not guaranteed to re-sign. But the move needed to be made, and Cole should really bolster our top-6 forwards heading into next season.

Season in Review

2008-07-06T02:56:00.003-06:00

Quite a while between posts, but what an ending to a tumultuous season. Sure, we all thought it was over with the injuries to big-time players like Horcoff, Souray, Moreau, and Torres; hell I was moping over potentially handing Stamkos on a platter to Brian Burke.

But what a last 20 games! We saw the rise and fall of many a player in the latter half of the season. And by the end of the year, it was clear who had to stay and who had to go.

Goaltending
We saw a passing of the torch of sorts in the latter half of the season. What had been Roloson`s starting spot since the end of the 05-06 season was passed onto a near force in the Oiler`s crease: Mathieu Garon.

The 29-year old and his quick reflexes powered the Oilers to a solid late-season surge. Even with the weak defense, he was able to put up a top-15 save percentage in the league, and wowed fans with his quick saves. He is exemplary of the new breed of NHL goaltenders: tall, and quick with his butterfly style. Hell, we almost made they playoffs before this guy got injured late in the year

By the end of the season, it was clear who the bonafide starter was for the Oilers, and Roloson`s future with the team seems to be in jeapordy. With the emergence of Delauriers, the options are endless about how Lowe could go about adjusting the roster in time for next season.

Defense
With injuries to Souray, Pitkanen, and Greene affecting the D-corps for a large portion of the year, we looked like we were going to have a repeat of last season. However, Staios stepped up as a veteran presence, and kids like Gilbert and Grebeshkov shined when called upon.

Ladislav Smid was called up half-way through the year, and stuck with the team till the end. He showed strides in his game, and started to handle the puck more. I`m most impressed with his defensive game. Also notable was Theo Peckham`s performance in his one game in the NHL. What a hit on Boll! Surely a sign of things to come.

Overall, we saw Lowe achieve his dream of a ``puck-moving defense``. Pitkanen thrilled fans with his exceptional skating, Gilbert played a smart 2-way game and chipped in with 16 goals, while Grebeshkov emerged later in the year as an offensive dynamo, showing off what I`d say is the 2nd-best break-out pass I`ve seen the Oilers had (after Pronger).

Matt Greene did come back, and showed signs of his old shutdown game. Still, it seems as if his defense has stagnated. We saw Souray, for what, 20 games? We still got a limited dose of his PP prowess, and his defense was average from what I saw. Pitkanen was enigmatic through the year, sometimes dominating games, other times disappearing completely. Moving into next year, I hope to see the D end up like this:

Pitkanen Souray
Gilbert Staios
Grebeshkov Smid
Greene

Either way, you can't help but get excited by the great puck-moving game and potential showed by the veterans and kids alike on the blue-line.

Forwards
Wow, what a season. Early on, the forwards were led by the first line of Penner, Horcoff, and Hemsky while the kids adapted to the NHL game and the other veterans continued to struggle. Moreau was injured all year, and Stoll/Torres quickly entered Mac-T's doghouse. Hemsky continued to lead us with his brilliance, and Horcoff also emerged as a star, literally. It was great to see him at the NHL All-Star Game.

When Horc went down, that's when I got worried, especially when Mac-T put Reasoner in the middle in his spot.

But boy did those kids step up. Gagner, Nilsson, and Cogliano went on a run, the diminutive youngsters leading the team in offensive output over the last half of the season. They stepped it up in those last 20 games, bringing the team within a couple points of a playoff spot, and helping Hemsky turn the PP around out of the NHL's basement.

Heading into next year, we got tons to look forward to. A healthy Horcoff would help the first line run at it's high-octane level prior to the All-Star Break. The kids are going to get nothing but better from here on out, and it's interesting to see what happens next year with them in a 2nd-line role.

Moreau's injury worries me, as this makes it the third season in a row he has missed a significant amount of games. Pisani's comeback was morale-boosting, congratulations to him on the recovery. Even more impressive was he was on pace for 20 goals with his output after the return.

Brodziak, Glencross, and Stortini emerged as the top 4th line in the league, and were a major reason for the late-season run, scoring timely goals and pumping up the fans with aggressive play. Hopefully we can keep them together heading into next season.

As for Stoll and Torres, their disappointing play has made them trade bait. Hopefully we can move them or Moreau in the off-season to make room for youngsters like Pouliot and Schremp.

Overall
Great end to a disappointing season. Hopefully the Oilers can keep the momentum for next season. Let's hope Lowe manages to turn the team into playoff contenders without dismantling the youth.

TSN Needs to Get Real

2007-11-27T21:47:00.001-07:00

If you guys look at the "Power Rankings" up on TSN, you'll see the Oilers ranked 30th in the NHL as of right now.
http://www.tsn.ca/fantasy_news/feature/?fid=549

This comes after we've won 2 in a row, and after going a respectable 3-1 in our last 4 games.

Their justification?

"The Oilers can only win in the shootout". I know it's not a regulation win, but a shootout win does give a team 2 points in the standings. Sure, it's essentially a lucky draw, but it does take skill, and teams prepare for shootouts just like every other aspect of hockey. A team that wins in a shootout never gets a special "shootout win", it's just a win. If TSN is going to dock us points for excelling at shootouts, thats their problem. There are atleast a half-dozen other teams I can think of that should be below us right now, because they can't even muster up a point, let alone win in a shootout.

Maybe Mac-T doesn't want to get risky late in games and in overtime; maybe he'd rather take his chances in the shootout. Hey, we're 6-1 aren't we.

Joni Pitkanen: This Summer's Biggest Acquisition

2007-11-27T18:34:00.000-07:00

I raved about him all of 2005-2006. I had confidence in him all of 2006-2007. And when last year's disaster season came to a close, I was praying that Lowe would take a look at him. Joni Pitkanen, ladies and gentlemen, is the real deal.

The quiet Finn's arrival in Edmonton was barely noticed; not a surprise when you had the departure of the captain, and the signings of Souray and Penner stealing all the big headlines. But this may have been the most fundamental move made in the off-season. Let's start off with a little history, why don't we.

Joni was born in the small northern Finnish town of Oulu, and was a natural skater from birth. Raised on the outdoor rinks, he developed into an agile, quick, and elusive skater. This went hand-in-hand with hockey. As he continued to grow in both height and strength, yet maintain his skating ability, it became clear that Joni was going to become something special.

At 15, he was taken in by Kärpät of the SM-liiga, the Finnish equivalent of the Russian Super League and the Swedish Elite League. There, he played on their junior team, thriving as he developed into one of the greatest prospects Finland had to offer. He quickly became recognized for his effective skating, offensive prowess, and defensive toughness; some even said he had a mean streak! When he finally debuted on the pro team, he became the best defenseman in the league. Leading up to the 2002 draft, Pitkanen was rated as the #1 prospect out of Europe, and the future looked up for the budding star.

When Bobby Clarke dealt Ruslan Fedotenko and 2 second-round picks to Tampa for the 4th overall pick, it became clear that they were trying to grab one of the studs available. With Rick Nash, Kari Lehtonen, and Jay Bouwmeester already taken, the Flyers drafted Joni Pitkanen. Although labelled NHL-ready, Joni selected to remain with Kärpät for one more season, where he starred as one of the premier players in European hockey.

The WJHC in 2003 was an eye-opener of sorts for Pitkanen's doubters. Some had labelled him soft, defensively irresponsible, and incapable of handling #1 defenseman minutes. Joni proved them wrong, manning the blueline for Finland with ease. He was a workhorse, playing upwards of 35 minutes a night, and was a key cog in Finland's bronze-medal winning performance at the tournament. It became clear to the Flyers that the time was right to bring Joni over to North America.

Pitkanen debuted for the Flyers in the 2003-04 season, making an immediate impact. He became a fixture on the team's top power-play unit, proving that his offensive skills could translate into NHL success. He eventually finished 2nd in team defensemen scoring to Kim Johnsson, scoring 27 points in 71 games. Although inconsistent with this defensive coverage during the early part of the season, Joni was able to adjust himself to the NHL game and as the season came to a close, became a bright spot on the team's back end. He was heavily relied upon during the Flyers' playoff run, playing top-2 minutes on a team laden with the likes of Johnsson, Desjardins, and Malakhov.

Some may argue that the lockout may have stifled Joni's development. He stayed in North America during the 2004-05 campaign, opting to play for the Flyers' farm team (the Phantoms) instead of going back to Finland to play for Oulu. However, Joni was able to further adjust to the North American game, leading the Phantoms in minutes while putting up 41 points in 72 games.

2005-06 was a breakout season for Pitkanen, as the Flyers re-tooled for the new NHL, acquiring the likes of Forsberg, Hatcher, and Rathje to fuel a powerhouse team. Joni starred alongside Eric Desjardins on the Flyers' top defensive pairing. He was a force on both sides of the ice, leading the rush on offense while working the body defensively. The Flyers powerplay became a force with him and Forsberg wheeling and dealing on the ice. As the season progressed, he was seen as not only of the best young defensemen in the NHL, but one of the best defensemen PERIOD.

However, Joni took a hit when he suffered a sports hernia halfway through the season. At that point, he was among the top-5 in league defensive scoring. Even when he returned, it was clear things had changed in Joni. He seemed to have lost a step, and was more hesitant to lay the body on defense. Although he was still able to produce offensively, he wasn't scoring at the same pace as he was before. Regardless, Pitkanen scored 46 points in only 58 games, good enough for 4th in team scoring, while putting up a +22 ranking, a testament to his defensive efficiency. The Flyers' early exit from the playoffs was a disappointment, but Joni seemed to regain his form as he powered the Flyers' backend attack.

With the departure of Johnsson in the offseason, fans in Philadelphia looked to Pitkanen to lead the blueline in the 2006-2007 season. However, things had changed for the Flyers. The team that had dominated the NHL one year earlier was suddenly at the bottom of the league. As the Flyers continued to lose, the blame was put upon Joni for his inability to lead the Flyers. Truth was, the retirement of Desjardins during the offseason had left a spot hole open on the roster. Joni just couldn't gel without a solid defensive presence in Desjardins to cover for him while he led the rush. Regardless of the Flyers' struggles, Joni still put up points in spades, eventually finishing the season with 43 points in 77 games, finishing third in the team in points.

However, Pitkanen had become the scapegoat for the Flyers' season. Fans hated, the media hated, and apparently, his teammates hated. In one practise, Todd Fedoruk actually punched Joni in the face. Things went from bad to worse, as the Flyers ended the season in last place, and fans were asking for Joni's head. When new GM Holmgren acquired both Hartnell and Kimo Timonen before the draft, it became clear that Joni's days in Philadelphia were numbered.

Lowe had apparently always had interest in acquiring Pitkanen. Before the Flyers, he was the one engrossed in discussion with Feaster and Tampa, trying to move up to grab him. I, personally, had been begging for Lowe to make a move all of last season, when the number one priority was getting an offensive defenseman. When that deal it went down, I was kind of shocked at what we gave up, but happy to have Joni.

I'm kind of irked at how he gets no attention here from the fans or the media, while Penner, Souray, and the youngsters get all the talk. I guess that's good for Joni, he's a quiet guy that goes about doing his business. I guarantee by the end of the season we'll be singing the praises of this guy. He's going to become a 25+ minute/night guy, and could put up 30-40 points before this season is over; but best of all, he's going to be a legitimate number 1 defenseman for a team that's been needing one since Pronger left.